2026-04-29 17:13:20,813 INFO signal_tuner_start n_traj=497 n_paths=15000 success=250 failure=247
2026-04-29 17:13:54,349 INFO progress 500/15000
2026-04-29 17:14:26,607 INFO progress 1000/15000
2026-04-29 17:14:59,460 INFO progress 1500/15000
2026-04-29 17:15:30,666 INFO progress 2000/15000
2026-04-29 17:16:02,322 INFO progress 2500/15000
2026-04-29 17:16:33,931 INFO progress 3000/15000
2026-04-29 17:17:04,985 INFO progress 3500/15000
2026-04-29 17:17:36,822 INFO progress 4000/15000
2026-04-29 17:18:09,273 INFO progress 4500/15000
2026-04-29 17:18:40,924 INFO progress 5000/15000
2026-04-29 17:19:12,139 INFO progress 5500/15000
2026-04-29 17:19:44,558 INFO progress 6000/15000
2026-04-29 17:20:17,311 INFO progress 6500/15000
2026-04-29 17:20:50,865 INFO progress 7000/15000
2026-04-29 17:21:22,855 INFO progress 7500/15000
2026-04-29 17:21:54,765 INFO progress 8000/15000
2026-04-29 17:22:27,080 INFO progress 8500/15000
2026-04-29 17:22:58,737 INFO progress 9000/15000
2026-04-29 17:23:30,728 INFO progress 9500/15000
2026-04-29 17:24:03,526 INFO progress 10000/15000
2026-04-29 17:24:34,825 INFO progress 10500/15000
2026-04-29 17:25:06,627 INFO progress 11000/15000
2026-04-29 17:25:37,799 INFO progress 11500/15000
2026-04-29 17:26:09,402 INFO progress 12000/15000
2026-04-29 17:26:40,983 INFO progress 12500/15000
2026-04-29 17:27:12,632 INFO progress 13000/15000
2026-04-29 17:27:43,906 INFO progress 13500/15000
2026-04-29 17:28:16,534 INFO progress 14000/15000
2026-04-29 17:28:48,186 INFO progress 14500/15000
2026-04-29 17:29:20,269 INFO progress 15000/15000

Trajectories: 497 (250 success, 247 failure)
Paths analyzed: 15000

           Fail-risk action (max AUC)            
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
┃ Threshold >= ┃ Rate% ┃      AUC ┃      95% CI ┃
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
│         0.08 │ 12.8% │ 0.675 <- │ 0.628-0.721 │
│         0.10 │  9.7% │    0.674 │ 0.625-0.718 │
│         0.13 │  6.6% │    0.671 │ 0.627-0.718 │
│         0.19 │  2.9% │    0.617 │ 0.578-0.656 │
└──────────────┴───────┴──────────┴─────────────┘

Suggested: EPISODIQ_FAIL_RISK_ACTION_THRESHOLD=0.08
  AUC: 0.675 (95% CI: 0.628-0.721)
  Mean signal rate: 12.8%
  Signal: rate predicts failure

         Success-signal action (min AUC)         
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
┃ Threshold >= ┃ Rate% ┃      AUC ┃      95% CI ┃
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
│         0.10 │ 10.6% │ 0.354 <- │ 0.304-0.404 │
│         0.12 │  8.0% │    0.357 │ 0.311-0.407 │
│         0.16 │  4.2% │    0.411 │ 0.364-0.456 │
└──────────────┴───────┴──────────┴─────────────┘

Suggested: EPISODIQ_SUCCESS_SIGNAL_ACTION_THRESHOLD=0.10
  AUC: 0.354 (95% CI: 0.304-0.404)
  Mean signal rate: 10.6%
  Signal: rate predicts success (inverse)
