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Risk Summary

Median across Monte Carlo models — robust consensus view of forward risk. Informational only; no pass/fail thresholds.

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Monte Carlo Models

Historical row shows the empirical distribution of realised outcomes over all overlapping horizon-length windows of the full history — directly comparable with each model's simulated distribution. Hist. Percentile ranks the historical median outcome within each model's simulated terminals.

Projected Paths

Drawdown Distribution

CAGR Scenarios

Stress Tests

Conservative envelope (worst model per metric) and trimmed bootstrap — deliberately pessimistic views for tail-risk stress.

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Model Calibration (parameters estimated from full history)

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Per-Model Detail (fan charts & terminal distributions)

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