michi bench
target: churned
5
models
490
rows
5
folds
classification
task
balanced_accuracy
ranked by

Results

modelbalanced_accuracy 95% intervalvs leader
knn 0.7149 0.613–0.8167 leader
linear 0.7083 0.6278–0.7888 tied with leader (p=0.992)
hist-gbm 0.6955 0.6058–0.7853 tied with leader (p=0.992)
rf 0.694 0.6157–0.7723 tied with leader (p=0.992)
dummy 0.5 0.5–0.5 tied with leader (p=0.0698)
Verdict. knn scores highest, but linear, hist-gbm, rf, dummy are statistically indistinguishable from it at this sample size. Choosing between them on these numbers alone is not supported.

Checks

warn 4 model(s) are not statistically distinguishable from knn: linear, hist-gbm, rf, dummy

How this was measured

cross-validation5-fold, stratified, shuffled with seed 0
preparationnumeric: impute median · categorical: impute most_frequent + onehot · standardise (scale-sensitive models only) — fitted inside each fold
baselinea dummy model is always included as the floor
significancecorrected resampled t-test (Nadeau & Bengio, 2003), Holm-adjusted across models
intervals95% t-interval across folds — optimistic, since folds share training data

Intervals describe the spread of fold scores, not true generalisation error. The significance test, which corrects for the overlap between training folds, is what the verdict relies on.