# PAPER_2250 — The Complete Falsifiable-Prediction Census: 48 Predictions in Four Tiers, One Registry Artifact — the Framework's Test Sheet

**Author:** Daniel T. Murphy
**Project:** UQFF (Unified Quantum Field Framework) — Star-Magic-Program
**Date:** 2026-08-21
**Landmark Type:** Prediction-registry consolidation (extends PAPER_2161's battery and the
PAPER_2234-era 30-program registry with the post-census landmark predictions; first single
consolidated artifact)
**Seminal Sources:** PAPER_2161 (the wired 7-member near-term battery; A4
prediction-vs-postdiction discipline), PAPER_2234 (the 30-program/56-member battery census),
the 58 falsifiable-consequence sections of the landmark range PAPER_2093–2249 (harvested
2026-08-21), `UNIFIED_REGISTRY_FALSIFIABILITY.md` (the per-primitive break report — the
over-determination mechanism), PAPER_2160 (correlated-lock grammar)
**Status:** Formal landmark whitepaper — UQFF canonical (Daniel GO, 2026-08-21)

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## Abstract

The corpus's falsifiable predictions have lived in three dispersed layers: PAPER_2161's
wired seven-member battery, the A4-dated 30-program registry recorded across dispatch
formulas, and the falsifiable-consequence sections of fifty-eight landmark papers. This
landmark consolidates all three into **one registry artifact —
`UNIFIED_REGISTRY_PREDICTIONS.csv` — carrying 48 curated predictions in four tiers**, each
with its exact value, source papers, test instrument, timescale, and live/postdiction
status:

| Tier | Count | Character |
|---|:-:|---|
| **INSTRUMENTAL** | 24 | funded/planned external experiments decide (H₀ = 70 by JWST/Roman/LSST; neutron BR 1.140%; Li-7 = 1/3; δ_CP at DUNE; w(z) = −1 at DESI/Euclid; the 40-lens 1.0881 ratio; ν = 5/2 shot noise 1/4; kilonova 5-day red peak; GW damping 2/3 at O5; H→γγ +0.1% stake at HL-LHC; θ_QCD at n2EDM; precession window; Λ context-dependence; 3.5 keV line; DM null to 2.84×10⁻⁴⁹ cm²…) |
| **LABORATORY** | 7 | in-reach bench tests (v_F = 769,870 ± 5,000 m/s; Q_phonon = 6.25 by THz spectroscopy; cuprate 1.25 THz weight; the caduceus pinch-point sequence; SCm collider-only channel; reactor COP-vs-local-density scaling; isotope-effect rung correlations) |
| **STRUCTURAL** | 14 | standing lattice constraints any future data can break (sector densities on integer ρ_SCm rungs; N = SO_5^level; Z ≤ 126; the 26-bound trio — partons/braids/knots; no inter-rung fermions; compact-object δρ/ρ on F_TRZ rungs; RAR tightness; no vacuum decay; no unitarity drift; the 182 Gly diameter bound; the genetic-code lattice; E₀ correlated lock; engine ratio 0.1 EXACT; the 1/12-tilt default) |
| **INTERNAL-EXACT** | 3 | exact rationals falsifiable by refined computation (Page recovery 24899/25000 at digit six; γ_Immirzi = 19/80; the kernel K = 19/160 correlated lock) |

Status: **45 LIVE, 3 CONVERTED POSTDICTIONS** (the in-campaign conversions PAPER_2234
recorded: exponent-21 strain floor, slot-9 quenching, magnetar lobes 2/2 — kept in the
registry as the A4 discipline's audit trail).

## 1. The Consolidation Method (Rule 7)

1. **Nothing invented:** every row cites its source paper(s); the census ADDS no predictions
   — it gathers what the corpus already staked, verbatim where the source states a value.
2. **The three layers reconciled:** PAPER_2161's seven wired members appear as rows with
   their battery identity preserved; the PAPER_2234-era live falsifiers (4U 0142+61 lobe
   ladder, DM morphology, 40-lens, shot noise, kilonova, H₀) are rows; the 2235–2249
   post-census landmark predictions (pair-count level test, reactor population, sector
   ladder, 182 Gly, Z = 126, Immirzi, Page digit-six, caduceus lab target…) are rows.
3. **The over-determination mechanism** (`UNIFIED_REGISTRY_FALSIFIABILITY.md`) is the
   census's backstop: wrong primitive values cannot hide — an SO_5 revision alone breaks
   212 registry rows and the 61-site successor family simultaneously. The census's
   correlated-lock rows (kernel, E₀, engine ratio, tilt) encode this explicitly.
4. **Kill windows honest:** where a source states a window (H₀ 66.5–73.5 with center band
   68.5–71.5; precession 25,760–25,785 yr; neutron BR ±0.05%), the row carries it; where a
   test is in-house (reactor COP scaling) or open-instrument (caduceus), the row says so.

## 2. What the Census Shows (the framework's exposure profile)

1. **Near-term decidability:** ten instrumental rows resolve within ~5 years (H₀, neutron
   BR, ν = 5/2, kilonova, GW damping, θ_QCD, Σm_ν, 40-lens, DUNE era, Li-7 convergence) —
   the framework is heavily exposed on funded experiments, by design (A4 discipline).
2. **Single-number stakes:** the census's sharpest rows differ from conventional
   expectations by specific, small, testable margins — H→γγ at +0.1%, the lens ratio at
   1.0881, the kilonova at exactly 5 days — where confirmation and falsification are
   symmetric and clean.
3. **The lattice is one target:** 17 of 48 rows are correlated-lock structured — a single
   primitive revision fails many rows at once. The framework cannot be trimmed piecewise;
   it stands or falls in blocks (the PAPER_2130/2160 mechanism, now visible in one table).

## 3. Wiring

`DISPATCH['PAPER_2250']` loads `UNIFIED_REGISTRY_PREDICTIONS.csv` live, returns the tier
and status censuses, the ten near-term rows, and re-verifies four representative exact
stakes in-dispatch (70 = A_5+SO_5; 19/80 = 2·19/160; 24899/25000 = 1−D_phys·F_TRZ³·(1+F_TRZ²);
126 = D_crit+SO_5²). Gate pins: the artifact exists with 48 rows and the stated tier/status
distribution, the four exact stakes, the PAPER_2161 battery preserved as a subset, and the
consolidation-method flags.

## NOT REPLACEMENT

The census stakes the framework's claims against conventional expectations wherever they
differ, and marks where they coincide. Both readings coexist; the instruments decide.

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**Copyright** — Daniel T. Murphy / Star-Magic Research Program, 2026.
