| HORIZON | MEAN | CLUSTERED CI | NAIVE CI | WILD CI | N / ISSUERS | MDE 80% | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5d | +0.5% | [-0.2, +1.2] | [-0.6, +1.5] | [-0.3, +1.3] | 50 / 8 | 1.1% | DESCRIPTIVE |
| +10d | +0.4% | [-0.6, +1.4] | [-0.9, +1.6] | [-0.6, +1.3] | 49 / 8 | 1.4% | DESCRIPTIVE |
| +20d | -0.2% | [-1.7, +1.3] | [-1.8, +1.4] | [-1.7, +1.3] | 47 / 8 | 2.1% | DESCRIPTIVE |
Peer model vs SPY — what these CARs measure: each event's expected return is α+β·(equal-weight mean return of the other covered names in this lens), estimated over the 60 trading days before the event (gap 6, minimum 30 usable days). The peer model absorbs sector-common moves — a commodity swing that lifts every name in the lens cancels out — so the residual isolates issuer-specific reaction. A SPY-relative CAR answers a different question (movement vs the broad market) and widens whenever the sector as a whole moves; the Lab's cohort event study reports that variant. All values below are peer-model CARs in percent, direction-aligned.
| Horizon | Mean CAR | Cluster CI (primary) | Naive CI (comparison) | Sample anatomy |
| +5d | +0.48% | [-0.25%, +1.22%] | [-0.55%, +1.52%] | 50 events · 8 unique issuers · median 6.5 events/issuer · top-3 issuer share 52% · window overlap 98% minimum detectable effect at 80% power: ±1.07% |
| +10d | +0.36% | [-0.61%, +1.35%] | [-0.89%, +1.61%] | 49 events · 8 unique issuers · median 6.5 events/issuer · top-3 issuer share 51% · window overlap 100% minimum detectable effect at 80% power: ±1.44% |
| +20d | -0.23% | [-1.73%, +1.28%] | [-1.84%, +1.37%] | 47 events · 8 unique issuers · median 6 events/issuer · top-3 issuer share 51% · window overlap 100% minimum detectable effect at 80% power: ±2.15% |
Decomposes the pooled +20d CAR by accepted event type — shows whether the pooled effect concentrates in a single type. Cluster CI (issuer-clustered, registered machinery) where the type has ≥2 events across ≥2 issuers; thin types show mean only, badged UNDERPOWERED. MDE = minimum detectable effect at 80% power.
| Event type | Mean CAR | Cluster CI | n | Issuers | Badge | MDE (80%) |
| OTHER_MATERIAL | +0.25% | [-0.72%, +1.21%] | 24 | 8 | DESCRIPTIVE | ±1.38% |
| DIVIDEND_CHANGE | -1.47% | [-4.93%, +1.21%] | 11 | 5 | UNDERPOWERED | ±4.36% |
| GUIDANCE_RAISE | +3.20% | [+2.64%, +3.76%] | 4 | 2 | UNDERPOWERED | ±1.11% |
| BUYBACK_ANNOUNCE | +1.98% | [-6.17%, +7.70%] | 3 | 3 | UNDERPOWERED | ±9.55% |
| CAPACITY_CHANGE | -0.58% | — | 2 | 1 | UNDERPOWERED | — |
| EARNINGS_BEAT | -8.85% | — | 2 | 1 | UNDERPOWERED | — |
| REGULATORY_ACTION | -0.76% | — | 1 | 1 | UNDERPOWERED | — |
82 filings → 72 deduped events → 13 stories → 89.8 effective (story-level design effect 0.802; issuer-level effective count 33.4). Top story 29.2% of event mass.
| Story size | Mass | Dominant issuer | Dominant type | Span |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 29.2% | CNQ | OTHER_MATERIAL | 8d |
| 19 | 26.4% | CNQ | OTHER_MATERIAL | 22d |
| 15 | 20.8% | SOBO | OTHER_MATERIAL | 13d |
| 5 | 6.9% | TRP | OTHER_MATERIAL | 5d |
| 3 | 4.2% | IMO | OTHER_MATERIAL | 4d |
| Test | Real value | Null mean ± sd | Null 2.5–97.5% | Percentile of real in null |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event-date shuffle | -0.23% | -0.64% ± 0.86 | (-2.25, +1.11) | 0.679 |
| Direction sign-flip | -0.23% | -0.04% ± 0.82 | (-1.66, +1.56) | 0.409 |
| Pre-event placebo (−20d) | +0.04% | located in the date-shuffle null | 0.788 | |
| Window | Median rel-mom | Outperformed half | Underperformed half | Difference | Envelope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prior 60d | -1.9% | -1.49% (n=21) | +1.42% (n=21) | -2.91pp | (-6.07, +0.14) |
| prior 20d | -1.6% | +0.08% (n=21) | -0.15% (n=21) | +0.23pp | (-2.76, +3.47) |
| Type (backfill era) | n | Peak day | Peak |CAR| | Half-life |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTHER_MATERIAL | 35 | 19 | 4.28% | not reached within window |
No ingested Form-4 substrate for this lens's members (MJDS/FPI insider filings are outside current evidence scope — SEDI substrate not ingested).
Material event = latest accepted non-insider event. Evidence age = days since the last accepted event of any type, as of 2026-07-29. Source status reflects the most recent filing's document fetch.
| Ticker | Issuer | Weight ↕ | Events ↕ | Grade ↕ | Latest material event | Evidence age (d) ↕ | Last filing | Source status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVE | CENOVUS ENERGY INC. | 9.15% | 7 | A | OTHER_MATERIAL · 2026-07-29 | 0 | 2026-07-29 | primary doc fetched |
| SOBO | South Bow Corp | 8.65% | 10 | A | DIVIDEND_CHANGE · 2026-05-07 | 83 | 2026-07-14 | primary doc fetched |
| PBA | PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP | 8.57% | 11 | A | DIVIDEND_CHANGE · 2026-07-16 | 13 | 2026-07-17 | primary doc fetched |
| TRP | TC ENERGY CORP | 8.50% | 11 | A | OTHER_MATERIAL · 2026-07-10 | 19 | 2026-07-14 | primary doc fetched |
| WCPRF | WHITECAP RESOURCES INC. | 8.42% | 0 | D | none accepted yet | — | — | no filings yet |
| SU | SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 8.21% | 17 | A | OTHER_MATERIAL · 2026-07-21 | 8 | 2026-07-21 | primary doc fetched |
| IMO | IMPERIAL OIL LTD | 8.10% | 10 | A | OTHER_MATERIAL · 2026-07-15 | 14 | 2026-07-15 | primary doc fetched |
| ENB | ENBRIDGE INC | 8.04% | 8 | A | OTHER_MATERIAL · 2026-05-08 | 82 | 2026-07-14 | primary doc fetched |
| CNQ | CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES Ltd | 7.21% | 8 | A | DIVIDEND_CHANGE · 2026-05-12 | 78 | 2026-07-14 | primary doc fetched |
Rendered from the archived snapshots (output/synthesis/<date>_ZEO_snapshot.json) — real day-over-day changes, not recomputed history.
Coverage classifications, not rankings. Dimension values are medians across the names holding each grade: coverage = filings ingested · freshness = days since last event · depth = prose filings · diversity = distinct event types · price-integrity = % of last 30 trade dates with a close.