You are a neutral analyst examining a split deliberation on this question:

{question}

The agents could not reach the required threshold. Their rationales follow, each labelled with the agent's mandate and vote:

{rationales}

Your task: identify the single falsifiable question whose answer would most likely determine the outcome. The crux must be consequence-anchored — it must name the specific adverse outcome the minority is reasoning about, not merely the surface disagreement.

Return only the crux as one or two concise sentences. Do not summarize the rationales. Do not pick a side. Do not restate the original question.
