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      <title data-react-helmet="true">What the Fed could learn from Canada | The Star</title>
      <meta data-react-helmet="true" name="storyuuid" content="20595394-ceeb-4817-ac26-f64e9afae1f0"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="description" content="The central bank, which has developed a pretty poor track record for meeting its inflation and employment goals, should set some deadlines."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="keywords" content="Federal Reserve,Bank of Canada,inflation,employment,monetary policy,smg_opinion,smg2_economy,smg2_business"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="news_keywords" content="Federal Reserve,Bank of Canada,inflation,employment,monetary policy,smg_opinion,smg2_economy,smg2_business"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="article:publisher" content="https://www.facebook.com/torontostar"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="article:published_time" content="2019-08-23"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="article:modified_time" content="2019-08-23T15:42:45.878Z"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="article:section" content="Opinion"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:title" content="Opinion | What the Fed could learn from Canada"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:url" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20220721144440/https://www.thestar.com/business/economy/opinion/2019/08/23/what-the-fed-could-learn-from-canada.html"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:description" content="The central bank, which has developed a pretty poor track record for meeting its inflation and employment goals, should set some deadlines."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:site_name" content="thestar.com"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:image" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20220721144440im_/https://images.thestar.com/OcnArdq5VP9qqxAtcZRn28z-oic=/1200x749/smart/filters:cb(1566574963912):format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/business/economy/opinion/2019/08/23/what-the-fed-could-learn-from-canada/fed.jpg"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:domain" content="thestar.com"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:site" content="@TorontoStar"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:title" content="Opinion | What the Fed could learn from Canada"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:description" content="The central bank, which has developed a pretty poor track record for meeting its inflation and employment goals, should set some deadlines."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:image" content="https://web.archive.org/web/20220721144440im_/https://images.thestar.com/OcnArdq5VP9qqxAtcZRn28z-oic=/1200x749/smart/filters:cb(1566574963912):format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/business/economy/opinion/2019/08/23/what-the-fed-could-learn-from-canada/fed.jpg"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:creator" content=""/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-title" content="What the Fed could learn from Canada"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-link" content="https://www.thestar.com/business/economy/opinion/2019/08/23/what-the-fed-could-learn-from-canada.html"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-type" content="post"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-author" content=""/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-image-url" content="https://images.thestar.com/OcnArdq5VP9qqxAtcZRn28z-oic=/1200x749/smart/filters:cb(1566574963912):format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/business/economy/opinion/2019/08/23/what-the-fed-could-learn-from-canada/fed.jpg"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-pub-date" content="2019-08-23T15:42:43.359Z"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-section" content="business|economy|opinion"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-tags" content="Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, inflation, employment, monetary policy, smg_opinion, smg2_economy, smg2_business, word count: 350-700 words, inHouseArticle: false, trust: Opinion, tlc_business"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-metadata" content="{&quot;storyuuid&quot;: &quot;20595394-ceeb-4817-ac26-f64e9afae1f0&quot;}"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="parsely-network-canonical" content="https://www.thestar.com/business/economy/opinion/2019/08/23/what-the-fed-could-learn-from-canada.html"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="mpp-exclude"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="article:tag" content="Business, Finance, &amp; Economics"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="vf:unique_id" content="20595394-ceeb-4817-ac26-f64e9afae1f0"/>
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Finance, & Economics"],"TorstarTags":["11","12","4"],"publisheddate":"Fri., Aug. 23, 2019","lastreplicatedepoch":1566574965878,"type":"Story","body":[{"text":"The U.S. Federal Reserve has developed a pretty poor track record for meeting its inflation and employment goals. If it wants to do a better job, it should follow Canada&#8217;s example and set some deadlines.","type":"text","isParagraph":true,"isHeading":false},{"text":"More than four decades ago, Congress mandated that the Fed&#8217;s monetary policy pursue two objectives: price stability and maximum employment. In January 2012, the central bank clarified the former by adopting a 2 per cent target for its preferred measure of inflation (the price index for personal consumption expenditures). For more than seven years, it has systematically undershot that goal.","type":"text","isParagraph":true,"isHeading":false},{"type":"mainart","data":{"captionPosition":"overlay","fullWindowMainart":false,"type":"image","imageid":"G8EMSTPP.3","origImageSize":"1200x749","lastmodified":1566574963912,"forceoriginal":false,"caption":"The Federal Reserve is in the middle of an extended review of its long-term policy framework, with an eye toward enhancing its effectiveness in the next recession.","source":"The Washington Post file photo","credit":"Jonathan 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the poor performance? One explanation is the lack of a time constraint. The Fed says that it intends to hit 2 per cent only in the longer run &#8212; which could mean one year, 10 years or even longer. Officials intentionally leave the period vague, presumably so that they can always claim to be on the path to (eventual!) success. Yet the uncertainty also leaves markets, the public and even policy makers guessing about the role the target plays in the central bank&#8217;s regular interest-rate decisions. This undermines its relevance for understanding how inflation will move in the short and medium term.","type":"text","isParagraph":true,"isHeading":false},{"type":"ad","heading":"ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW","name":"ArticleFirstBigBox","display":"medium-down","pos":"1","interstitial":true,"sizes":[[300,250]]},{"text":"The time horizon matters even more for employment. Consider what happened in mid-2013, when the Fed triggered a bond market rout by announcing its intention to remove stimulus by cutting back on its securities purchases. This tightening of monetary policy was possible because <a class=\"text-block__link\" onContextMenu=\"theStarLinkClick(event, this)\" onclick=\"theStarLinkClick(event, this)\"href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20130619SEPcompilation.pdf#page=5\">most (actually 16 out of 19)</a> policy makers agreed that it would be appropriate to allow the unemployment rate to remain elevated for more than 30 months.","type":"text","isParagraph":true,"isHeading":false},{"text":"Imagine what would have happened if the Fed had faced, say, a 24-month deadline to bring unemployment down to its long-run level. Policy makers couldn&#8217;t have started tightening when they did. As a result, households would have expected unemployment to fall more rapidly &#8211; and would generally have had more confidence in its propensity to do so in any recession. That confidence would, in and of itself, support demand and lead to a faster recovery.","type":"text","isParagraph":true,"isHeading":false},{"text":"Now is an opportune time for the Fed to reconsider its time constraints. The central bank happens to be in the middle of an extended review of its long-term policy framework, with an eye toward enhancing its effectiveness in the next recession.","type":"text","isParagraph":true,"isHeading":false},{"type":"textBreakPoint","insertAt":"contentEndBreakPoint"},{"text":"Every CEO knows that goals without deadlines are unlikely to have much effect on decisions or expectations. That&#8217;s true about monetary policy, too. The Bank of Canada has adopted a time horizon of 18 to 24 months to fulfil its mandate, allowing for occasional deviations in unusual circumstances. The Fed should do the same.","type":"text","isParagraph":true,"isHeading":false},{"type":"stn-smart-player"},{"text":"This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Narayana Kocherlakota is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at the University of Rochester and was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009 to 2015.","author":{"credit":"Narayana Kocherlakota Bloomberg","photo":{}},"authorPageUrl":null,"type":"endnote","isLast":true},{"type":"relatedStories","relatedStories":[]},{"type":"articleRelatedFooter"},{"type":"shareBar","position":"bottom"},{"type":"trustbar"},{"type":"conversations"}],"assetTags":["federal_reserve","macroeconomics","inflation","smg_opinion","economy","employment","central_bank","u_s_federal_reserve","monetary_policy","federal_reserve","money","full_employment","smg2_business","inflation","bank_of_canada","macroeconomic_policy","monetary_policy","smg2_economy"],"seoKeywords":"Federal Reserve,Bank of Canada,inflation,employment,monetary 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src="https://web.archive.org/web/20220721144440im_/https://images.thestar.com/tIS9x9_685vFP0nrqPl_h_SHliI=/1086x678/smart/filters:cb(1566574963912):format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/business/economy/opinion/2019/08/23/what-the-fed-could-learn-from-canada/fed.jpg" alt="The Federal Reserve is in the middle of an extended review of its long-term policy framework, with an eye toward enhancing its effectiveness in the next recession." width="1086" height="678"/></picture></div><div class="caption-container"><button type="button" class="caption-button alcta" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;expand&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;caption&quot;, &quot;position&quot;: &quot;undefined&quot;" aria-label="Show Caption"><i class="staricon show-caption-icon staricon-caption-show"></i></button></div></div></div><header class="c-article-headline c-article-header__headline" aria-label="article header"><div class="c-article-labels-container"><div class="primary-label-basic"><a href="/web/20220721144440/https://www.thestar.com/business/economy.html"><div class="label-flag label-pointer label-color-primary">Economy</div></a></div><div class="text-label-basic"><div><span class="text-label-text alcta" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;label&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;trust&quot;, &quot;label&quot;: &quot;Opinion&quot;}">Opinion</span></div></div></div><h1 class="c-article-headline__heading">What the Fed could learn from Canada</h1><h2 class="c-article-headline__abstract">The central bank, which has developed a pretty poor track record for meeting its inflation and employment goals, should set some deadlines.</h2></header><div class="article__byline__font c-article-header__byline article__byline-container-author-withphoto" data-lpos="article|author"><div class="article__img-container"></div><div class="article__byline"><span class="article__author-by">By </span><span class="article__author"><span class="article__author-credit">Narayana Kocherlakota Bloomberg</span></span><div class="article__time-container"><span class="article__published-date--clickable alcta" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;label&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;warning&quot;}"><span><i class="staricon article__published-date--warning-icon staricon-error-reporting"></i></span><span class="article__published-date article__published-date--warning">Fri., Aug. 23, 2019</span></span><span class="published-date-border"></span><span class="article__readtime"><i class="material-icons-outlined c-material-icon c-material-icon--article-readtime-clock" role="img" pointer-events="none" focusable="false" aria-hidden="true">timer</i><span>2<!-- --> min. read</span></span></div></div></div><div class="c-article-header_share-panel"><ul class="share-toolbar-container" data-lpos="article|share-toolbar|top"><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share on Facebook" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;facebook&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-facebook-basic"></i></a></li><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share on Twitter" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;twitter&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-twitter-basic"></i></a></li><li id="whatsapp-basic--li"><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share with Whatsapp" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;whatsapp&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-whatsapp-basic"></i></a></li><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share with email" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;email&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-email-basic"></i></a></li><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share on LinkedIn" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;linkedin&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-linkedin-basic"></i></a></li><li><div class="link-wrapper"><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Copy Link" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;copy-link&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-link"></i></a></div></li></ul></div></div><div class="c-article-body" data-lpos="article|body"><div class="c-article-body__content"><p class="text-block-container speakable-text-block-container">The U.S. Federal Reserve has developed a pretty poor track record for meeting its inflation and employment goals. If it wants to do a better job, it should follow Canada&#8217;s example and set some deadlines.</p><p class="text-block-container speakable-text-block-container">More than four decades ago, Congress mandated that the Fed&#8217;s monetary policy pursue two objectives: price stability and maximum employment. In January 2012, the central bank clarified the former by adopting a 2 per cent target for its preferred measure of inflation (the price index for personal consumption expenditures). For more than seven years, it has systematically undershot that goal.</p><p class="text-block-container">Why the poor performance? One explanation is the lack of a time constraint. The Fed says that it intends to hit 2 per cent only in the longer run &#8212; which could mean one year, 10 years or even longer. Officials intentionally leave the period vague, presumably so that they can always claim to be on the path to (eventual!) success. Yet the uncertainty also leaves markets, the public and even policy makers guessing about the role the target plays in the central bank&#8217;s regular interest-rate decisions. This undermines its relevance for understanding how inflation will move in the short and medium term.</p><p class="text-block-container">The time horizon matters even more for employment. Consider what happened in mid-2013, when the Fed triggered a bond market rout by announcing its intention to remove stimulus by cutting back on its securities purchases. This tightening of monetary policy was possible because <a class="text-block__link" oncontextmenu="theStarLinkClick(event, this)" onclick="theStarLinkClick(event, this)" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220721144440/https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20130619SEPcompilation.pdf#page=5">most (actually 16 out of 19)</a> policy makers agreed that it would be appropriate to allow the unemployment rate to remain elevated for more than 30 months.</p><p class="text-block-container">Imagine what would have happened if the Fed had faced, say, a 24-month deadline to bring unemployment down to its long-run level. Policy makers couldn&#8217;t have started tightening when they did. As a result, households would have expected unemployment to fall more rapidly &#8211; and would generally have had more confidence in its propensity to do so in any recession. That confidence would, in and of itself, support demand and lead to a faster recovery.</p><p class="text-block-container">Now is an opportune time for the Fed to reconsider its time constraints. The central bank happens to be in the middle of an extended review of its long-term policy framework, with an eye toward enhancing its effectiveness in the next recession.</p><span style="display:block" id="contentEndBreakPoint"></span><p class="text-block-container">Every CEO knows that goals without deadlines are unlikely to have much effect on decisions or expectations. That&#8217;s true about monetary policy, too. The Bank of Canada has adopted a time horizon of 18 to 24 months to fulfil its mandate, allowing for occasional deviations in unusual circumstances. The Fed should do the same.</p><div class="stn-smart-player-component" tabindex="0" aria-label="video player powered by sendtonews"></div><div class="author-endnote-container border-bottom" data-lpos="article|author|bottom"><div>This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Narayana Kocherlakota is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at the University of Rochester and was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009 to 2015.</div></div><div class="article-related-inline"></div><span class="share-label-text">SHARE:</span><ul class="share-toolbar-container" data-lpos="article|share-toolbar|bottom"><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share on Facebook" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;facebook&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-facebook-basic"></i></a></li><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share on Twitter" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;twitter&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-twitter-basic"></i></a></li><li id="whatsapp-basic--li"><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share with Whatsapp" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;whatsapp&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-whatsapp-basic"></i></a></li><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share with email" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;email&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-email-basic"></i></a></li><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Share on LinkedIn" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;linkedin&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-linkedin-basic"></i></a></li><li><div class="link-wrapper"><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="share-icon-anchor alcta" title="Copy Link" data-alparams="{&quot;ltype&quot;:&quot;pageaction&quot;,&quot;ctype&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;copy-link&quot;}"><i class="staricon staricon-link"></i></a></div></li></ul><div class="article-trust-bar" data-lpos="article|trust-bar"><ul role="list" class="trust-items"><li><a role="link" tabindex="0" class="trust-item-link"><div class="trust-item"><i class="staricon trust-item-staricon staricon-error-reporting"></i><span class="trust-item-text trust-item-report-error">Report an error</span></div></a></li><li><span><span><a href="/web/20220721144440/https://www.thestar.com/about/statementofprinciples.html" class="trust-item-link"><div class="trust-item"><i class="staricon trust-item-staricon staricon-journalistic-standards"></i><span class="trust-item-text trust-item-journal-std">Journalistic Standards</span></div></a></span></span></li><li><span><span><a href="/web/20220721144440/https://www.thestar.com/about/aboutus.html" class="trust-item-link"><div class="trust-item"><i class="staricon trust-item-staricon staricon-trust-icon"></i><span class="trust-item-text trust-item-about-star">About <em>The Star</em></span></div></a></span></span></li></ul></div><div id="conversations"><div class="c-conversation-title">JOIN THE CONVERSATION <span class="c-total-comments"></span></div><div class="c-pullquote"><div class="c-pullquote-logo">Q:</div><p class="c-pullquotetext"></p></div><div class="c-signin c-signin--hide"><p class="c-register-message">Anyone can read Conversations, but to contribute, you should be registered Torstar account holder. 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