Metadata-Version: 2.5
Name: invasive-species-utac
Version: 1.0.0
Summary: IPBES 2023 (real, official global invasive-species assessment, USD423bn/yr cost, 60% of extinctions invasive-linked), Marshall 2018 (real, causally-attributed Lake Victoria trophic cascade, 200+ cichlid species lost), and Williamson & Fitter 1996 + Spatz et al. 2022 (the honesty check: most introductions never become invasive, and island eradication succeeds 88% of the time), no UTAC/CREP bridge
Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/invasive-species-utac
Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/invasive-species-utac
Author: Römer, Johann
License: MIT
License-File: LICENSE
Requires-Python: >=3.11
Provides-Extra: dev
Requires-Dist: mypy>=1.10.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pre-commit>=3.7.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest-cov>=5.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest>=8.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.6.0; extra == 'dev'
Description-Content-Type: text/markdown

# invasive-species-utac

GenesisAeon Package 117 — real, independently verified invasive-
species scale, trophic-cascade, and management science. Last of the
five candidate gap-topics from `UTACnextSteps.txt` (after
`coral-reef-utac` P114, `biodiversity-utac` P115,
`pollinator-network-utac` P116). **Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET
bridge and no invented Γ value** — see [DISCLAIMER.md](DISCLAIMER.md).

## Deliberately not one-sided

`is_invasion_an_inevitable_outcome_of_introduction()` and
`is_eradication_success_rare()` both return `False` — Williamson &
Fitter's (1996) "tens rule" shows most species introductions never
become invasive, and Spatz et al. (2022)'s real DIISE data shows
island invasive-species eradication succeeds 88% of the time (1,550
real attempts, 998 islands). Invasion is not an inevitable, one-way,
unmanageable ratchet.

## What's real here

- **IPBES (2023) Thematic Assessment on Invasive Alien Species** — the
  real, official first global assessment: economic cost exceeded USD
  423 billion/year as of 2019, quadrupling every decade since 1970;
  invasive species have contributed to 60% of recorded global
  extinctions. Of 37,000+ introduced alien species, just over 3,500
  are classified as harmful invasive — a real minority.
- **Marshall (2018, *Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic
  Sciences*)** — a real, causally-resolved trophic cascade: Nile perch
  introduced to Lake Victoria in the 1950s drove more than 200 endemic
  cichlid species to extinction by the 1980s, with a real second-order
  effect (loss of algae-grazing cichlids contributing to lake
  eutrophication) beyond the direct predation.
- **Williamson & Fitter (1996, *Ecology*)** — the foundational "tens
  rule": roughly 10% of introductions establish, roughly 10% of those
  become invasive — most introduced species do not become a problem.
- **Spatz et al. (2022, *Scientific Reports*)** — the honesty-check
  citation: a real synthesis of over 100 years of island invasive-
  vertebrate eradication attempts, 88% success rate.

## Quickstart

```bash
pip install invasive-species-utac
```

```python
from invasive_species_utac import (
    GLOBAL_SCALE, harmful_fraction_of_introduced_species,
    LAKE_VICTORIA_CASCADE, does_the_cascade_stop_at_direct_predation,
    TENS_RULE, rough_fraction_of_introductions_becoming_invasive,
    ERADICATION_RECORD, is_eradication_success_rare,
)

print(GLOBAL_SCALE.annual_cost_usd_billion)       # 423.0
print(round(harmful_fraction_of_introduced_species(), 3))  # ~0.095
print(LAKE_VICTORIA_CASCADE.cichlid_species_lost)  # 200
print(round(rough_fraction_of_introductions_becoming_invasive(), 3))  # 0.01
print(ERADICATION_RECORD.success_rate_pct)         # 88.0
print(is_eradication_success_rare())                # False
```

## Development

```bash
pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest
```

## Citation

See [CITATION.cff](CITATION.cff) and [.zenodo.json](.zenodo.json).
