In plain words: the last untouched shelf of the library got its visit. The forecast-comparison classics are the tools econometricians built to answer "is model A really better than model B, or is that noise?" โ and they were built from day one for exactly our substrate problem, with corrections for serially dependent errors baked in. Four entered: the 1995 DieboldโMariano test (the field's workhorse), the GiacominiโWhite conditional test โ which is the regime-scoping question in its native statistical form ("is this thing better WHEN the market is in state X?"), Hansen's data-snooping-robust superiority test, and the Model Confidence Set, whose set-valued answer ("these regimes are statistically indistinguishable from the best") is precisely the shape a scoping verdict wants. With this, every one of the twenty method families has now been visited at least once โ the map has no blank continents left, only three shelves with named leftovers. The four newcomers face the gates next; two passers close the regime-scoping gap and fire the sixth handoff โ which would put candidate batches on the lab's shelf for every boundary in the machine.
The four
id
Instrument
What it brings to regime-scoping
H-092
DieboldโMariano (forecast, active 2026-03)
per-regime predictive-contribution comparison, HAC by design
H-093
GiacominiโWhite CPA
predictive ability CONDITIONAL on states โ the boundary's question as a formal test
H-094
Hansen SPA (arch, MCS)
snooping-robust superiority across many regime comparisons
H-095
Model Confidence Set (MCS, active 2026-03)
the SET of regimes indistinguishable from best โ set-valued scoping
Coverage counters after this firing
Boundary
Minimum
Verified
Screened-pass
Fed
Starvation
STABLE
100
33
23
23
67
FRAGILE↔CONDITIONAL
60
14
12
12
46
CONDITIONAL-scoping
40
14
8
0
26
FAIL
40
13
10
10
27
EXPIRY
40
16
11
11
24
cross-cutting
20
5
0
0
15
Total
300
95
64
56
205
โถ Next iteration
Iteration 26 = COND-scoping screen S-09 (the four newcomers). Two or more passers puts the boundary at โฅ10 โ feed batch B-06 fires โ and with it, every boundary in the status machine has candidate batches on the lab's shelf. After B-06: the residual-leads sweeps (families 3/8/10) and the long STABLE road (deficit 67) โ likely via the GROW-variant residue, the parked WebSearch leads, and a fresh literature push.
Steering point: no directive = S-09 next firing. Directives are ledger-recorded verbatim before taking effect.
Machine-readable record: ledger row 30 + catalog ยงF14-01. WebSearch: blocked this firing (recorded). Pages are append-only.