Metadata-Version: 2.5
Name: el-nino-amplification-utac
Version: 1.0.1
Summary: Real coral-paleorecord evidence for El Nino/ENSO amplification (Cole et al. 2026 Science: ~40% stronger last 40yrs vs pre-industrial millennium; Tripp et al. 2026 GRL: 4000BP La Nina-skewed complication), no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge
Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/el-nino-amplification-utac
Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/el-nino-amplification-utac
Author: Römer, Johann
License: MIT
License-File: LICENSE
Requires-Python: >=3.11
Provides-Extra: dev
Requires-Dist: mypy>=1.10.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pre-commit>=3.7.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest-cov>=5.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest>=8.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.6.0; extra == 'dev'
Description-Content-Type: text/markdown

# el-nino-amplification-utac

GenesisAeon Package 118 — real coral-paleorecord evidence that El Nino
events over the last 40 years are measurably stronger than the
pre-industrial millennium baseline, plus a real complication from the
same research group's deeper paleorecord. **Deliberately has no
UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge** — see [DISCLAIMER.md](DISCLAIMER.md) for why.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon,
written for general audiences), see [WHITEPAPER.md](WHITEPAPER.md).

## Where this package came from

Johann shared a scinexx.de article on Cole et al. (2026, *Science*). A
broad DeepResearch pass then confirmed this topic was genuinely
uncovered in this ecosystem's climate/ecology series (checked directly
against `PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md`) and surfaced two companion candidates
(marine heatwaves, Antarctic ice shelf mass loss) built alongside this
one. Every citation here was independently verified via direct WebFetch
against publisher/press-release pages before being written into code.

## What's real here

- **Cole et al. (2026, *Science*)** — El Nino events measured over the
  last 40 years are **~40% stronger** than the pre-industrial (pre-~1850)
  millennium baseline, exceeding the full range of variability in that
  1000-year paleorecord. Method: 13 Galapagos coral cores (living +
  subfossil), Sr/Ca ratio and oxygen-isotope proxies, 1mm sampling
  resolution, minimum 20-year span per core.
- **Tripp et al. (2026, *GRL*)** — the same method extended to ~4000
  years before present: real, substantial ENSO variability existed
  then too (comparable in magnitude to 1959-1979 CE), but skewed toward
  stronger **La Nina** (cold) events — the opposite polarity of today's
  El Nino-skewed record.

## Deliberately not one-sided

`does_skew_direction_match_modern()` returns `False` — the 4000-BP
record's dominant ENSO polarity does not match today's. The paleorecord
does not tell a simple "monotonically getting stronger" story: it shows
the modern 40-year window as anomalous against the full millennium
range, with a real, differently-shaped precedent further back.

`amplification_is_a_comparison_not_a_forecast()` always returns `True` —
this package documents a measured historical comparison, not a
prediction about any specific future El Nino event.

## Installation

```bash
pip install el-nino-amplification-utac
```

## Quick start

```python
from el_nino_amplification_utac import (
    modern_amplification_pct,
    is_modern_enso_unprecedented_in_millennium,
    does_skew_direction_match_modern,
)

modern_amplification_pct()  # 40.0
is_modern_enso_unprecedented_in_millennium(40.0)  # True
does_skew_direction_match_modern()  # False -- the honesty check
```

## License

Code: MIT. Documentation/data notes: see [DISCLAIMER.md](DISCLAIMER.md).

## Citation

See [CITATION.cff](CITATION.cff).
