PREVIEW — real data, not yet part of the daily build. Unlinked page; delta baseline starts with the next daily snapshot archive.
Research Brief — GDX
build 9b2d1cd4 · data through 2026-07-21 · methodology v5
WHAT CHANGED- Since build 9b2d1cd4, GDX added 0 filings, 0 accepted events, and 0 newly matured events.
- No issuer changed C6 state.
- Coverage weight unchanged.
- Retroactive edits: 0.
WHAT MATTERS- Evidence is concentrated: EGO and ORLA hold 14% of accepted events and 22.9% of lens weight.
- Form 4 coverage: 5/28 covered issuers — most covered Canadian issuers report insider trades through Canada's SEDI system, which is not yet ingested.
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS- Peer-adjusted event performance is +0.0% at day +20 (95% CI [-1.2%, +1.2%], n=257) — status: DESCRIPTIVE.
WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN- Confidence intervals shown are naive: they assume independent events, while issuer clustering and overlapping windows make them optimistic. Clustered inference is scheduled and will be pre-committed before computation.
- C6 sign confirmation remains accruing; posture states are research classifications of evidence rarity, not directional calls.
INSPECT NEXTordered by trigger count — not an investment ranking
- AEM — C6 posture elevated
- NEM — 10.8% lens weight but no C6 analysis yet
519 filings → 450 prose → 403 candidates → 403 accepted → 376 deduped → 336 matured → 289 direction-eligible
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
brief cef990abbd6606c3 · deterministic synthesis — no generative model · hover any sentence for its backing data fields
Evidence Decision Canvas — GDX
build 9b2d1cd4 · data through 2026-07-21 · method b717068e17e3f09a (pre-committed clustered-inference spec)
| HORIZON | MEAN | CLUSTERED CI | NAIVE CI | WILD CI | N / ISSUERS | MDE 80% | STATUS |
|---|
| +5d | +0.4% | [-0.4, +1.2] | [-0.4, +1.1] | [-0.5, +1.1] | 285 / 28 | 1.1% | DESCRIPTIVE |
| +10d | +0.4% | [-0.6, +1.4] | [-0.4, +1.2] | [-0.6, +1.4] | 276 / 28 | 1.4% | DESCRIPTIVE |
| +20d | +0.0% | [-1.6, +1.7] | [-1.2, +1.2] | [-1.6, +1.6] | 257 / 28 | 2.4% | DESCRIPTIVE |
median 9 events/issuer · top-3 issuers 22% of sample · clustered CI is primary; naive shown for comparison
What would change this conclusion
- If the effect stays near +0.0%, roughly 191068 additional distinct issuers with events (~191096 total clusters) would be needed before the clustered CI could exclude zero (1/√G approximation).
- A true effect smaller than the current MDE (2.4% at 80% power) cannot be detected at this sample size — absence of significance is not evidence of absence.
- SEDI ingestion could reveal an insider pattern not visible in the current Form 4 scope, changing the risk-side reading for MJDS issuers.
- If naive and clustered intervals diverge further as events accrue, issuer clustering — not the event effect — is doing the work; per-issuer decomposition becomes the priority.
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.