PREVIEW — real data, not yet part of the daily build. Unlinked page; delta baseline starts with the next daily snapshot archive.
Research Brief — URNM
build 9b2d1cd4 · data through 2026-07-21 · methodology v5
WHAT CHANGED- Since build 9b2d1cd4, URNM added 0 filings, 0 accepted events, and 0 newly matured events.
- No issuer changed C6 state.
- Coverage weight unchanged.
- Retroactive edits: 0.
WHAT MATTERS- Evidence is concentrated: CCJ and DNN hold 31% of accepted events and 33.2% of lens weight.
- Form 4 coverage: 3/9 covered issuers — most covered Canadian issuers report insider trades through Canada's SEDI system, which is not yet ingested.
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS- Peer-adjusted event performance is +0.2% at day +20 (95% CI [-2.3%, +2.7%], n=37) — status: DESCRIPTIVE.
WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN- Confidence intervals shown are naive: they assume independent events, while issuer clustering and overlapping windows make them optimistic. Clustered inference is scheduled and will be pre-committed before computation.
- C6 sign confirmation remains accruing; posture states are research classifications of evidence rarity, not directional calls.
INSPECT NEXTordered by trigger count — not an investment ranking
111 filings → 98 prose → 80 candidates → 80 accepted → 72 deduped → 61 matured → 47 direction-eligible
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
brief 941b964c6059b280 · deterministic synthesis — no generative model · hover any sentence for its backing data fields
Evidence Decision Canvas — URNM
build 9b2d1cd4 · data through 2026-07-21 · method b717068e17e3f09a (pre-committed clustered-inference spec)
| HORIZON | MEAN | CLUSTERED CI | NAIVE CI | WILD CI | N / ISSUERS | MDE 80% | STATUS |
|---|
| +5d | +0.1% | [-1.4, +1.1] | [-1.6, +1.8] | [-1.1, +1.3] | 45 / 7 | 1.8% | UNDERPOWERED |
| +10d | -0.3% | [-1.1, +0.4] | [-2.1, +1.4] | [-1.0, +0.3] | 42 / 7 | 1.0% | UNDERPOWERED |
| +20d | +0.2% | [-1.7, +3.1] | [-2.3, +2.7] | [-2.1, +2.5] | 37 / 7 | 3.4% | UNDERPOWERED |
median 6 events/issuer · top-3 issuers 65% of sample · clustered CI is primary; naive shown for comparison
What would change this conclusion
- If the effect stays near +0.2%, roughly 822 additional distinct issuers with events (~829 total clusters) would be needed before the clustered CI could exclude zero (1/√G approximation).
- A true effect smaller than the current MDE (3.4% at 80% power) cannot be detected at this sample size — absence of significance is not evidence of absence.
- SEDI ingestion could reveal an insider pattern not visible in the current Form 4 scope, changing the risk-side reading for MJDS issuers.
- If naive and clustered intervals diverge further as events accrue, issuer clustering — not the event effect — is doing the work; per-issuer decomposition becomes the priority.
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.