PREVIEW — real data, not yet part of the daily build. Unlinked page; delta baseline starts with the next daily snapshot archive.
Research Brief — XEG
build 9b2d1cd4 · data through 2026-07-21 · methodology v5
WHAT CHANGED- Since build 9b2d1cd4, XEG added 0 filings, 0 accepted events, and 0 newly matured events.
- No issuer changed C6 state.
- Coverage weight unchanged.
- Retroactive edits: 0.
WHAT MATTERS- Evidence is concentrated: SU and BTE hold 41% of accepted events and 49.8% of lens weight.
- Form 4 coverage: 1/8 covered issuers — most covered Canadian issuers report insider trades through Canada's SEDI system, which is not yet ingested.
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS- Peer-adjusted event performance is -1.6% at day +20 (95% CI [-4.5%, +1.3%], n=36) — status: DESCRIPTIVE.
WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN- Confidence intervals shown are naive: they assume independent events, while issuer clustering and overlapping windows make them optimistic. Clustered inference is scheduled and will be pre-committed before computation.
- C6 sign confirmation remains accruing; posture states are research classifications of evidence rarity, not directional calls.
INSPECT NEXTordered by trigger count — not an investment ranking
- BTE — C6 posture elevated
- CNQ — C6 posture elevated
- CVE — 12.9% lens weight but no C6 analysis yet
87 filings → 64 prose → 71 candidates → 71 accepted → 66 deduped → 58 matured → 41 direction-eligible
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
brief 9acc7895d81c1fb1 · deterministic synthesis — no generative model · hover any sentence for its backing data fields
Evidence Decision Canvas — XEG
build 9b2d1cd4 · data through 2026-07-21 · method b717068e17e3f09a (pre-committed clustered-inference spec)
| HORIZON | MEAN | CLUSTERED CI | NAIVE CI | WILD CI | N / ISSUERS | MDE 80% | STATUS |
|---|
| +5d | +1.1% | [-0.2, +2.1] | [-0.5, +2.6] | [-0.1, +2.2] | 40 / 7 | 1.7% | UNDERPOWERED |
| +10d | -0.3% | [-2.4, +1.3] | [-2.4, +1.8] | [-2.1, +1.4] | 39 / 7 | 2.6% | UNDERPOWERED |
| +20d | -1.6% | [-4.3, +0.5] | [-4.5, +1.3] | [-4.1, +0.9] | 36 / 7 | 3.5% | UNDERPOWERED |
median 5 events/issuer · top-3 issuers 58% of sample · clustered CI is primary; naive shown for comparison
Evidence tensions (rule-detected)
BTE — positive: BUYBACK event; offsetting: C6 posture elevated (evidence-rarity gate); missing: Canadian insider substrate (SEDI — not ingested)
Capital-return / positive evidence is present, but the offsetting posture means risk-side interpretation is incomplete — review both before drawing any view.
What would change this conclusion
- If the effect stays near -1.6%, roughly 10 additional distinct issuers with events (~17 total clusters) would be needed before the clustered CI could exclude zero (1/√G approximation).
- A true effect smaller than the current MDE (3.5% at 80% power) cannot be detected at this sample size — absence of significance is not evidence of absence.
- SEDI ingestion could reveal an insider pattern not visible in the current Form 4 scope, changing the risk-side reading for MJDS issuers.
- If naive and clustered intervals diverge further as events accrue, issuer clustering — not the event effect — is doing the work; per-issuer decomposition becomes the priority.
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.