forex orthogonal-candidate evaluation · live
Forex Orthogonal-Candidate Evaluation (batch 5-10)
OPERATOR MORNING HANDOFF
EVALUATION COMPLETE, PROMOTION YOURS. 28 batch-5-10 candidates evaluated end-to-end on 2026-07-02: rho worst-cell 15 PASS / 10 WATCH / 3 BAN (cox_stuart_trend_z, hjorth_complexity, ramsey_rothman_bicovariance — terminal) · xi §B worst-cell on the 25 survivors: 13 PASS / 12 WATCH / 0 BAN. Review PR-A terrylica/mql5#134 (verdicts + evidence + ledger updates) and PR-B terrylica/opendeviationbar-py#573 (this board). Verdict tables: verdict.md here; per-candidate evidence: candidates_status.json. Raw xi cells live on bigblack only (~/eon/mql5/findings/audits/2026-06-03-.../eval_b5_10_xi_results/). Next: promote your picks -> merge both PRs -> dashboard:deploy. The 6 pre-registered cards #1/#3/#4/#14/#50/#71 remain untested-on-forex.
EVALUATION COMPLETE, PROMOTION YOURS. 28 batch-5-10 candidates evaluated end-to-end on 2026-07-02: rho worst-cell 15 PASS / 10 WATCH / 3 BAN (cox_stuart_trend_z, hjorth_complexity, ramsey_rothman_bicovariance — terminal) · xi §B worst-cell on the 25 survivors: 13 PASS / 12 WATCH / 0 BAN. Review PR-A terrylica/mql5#134 (verdicts + evidence + ledger updates) and PR-B terrylica/opendeviationbar-py#573 (this board). Verdict tables: verdict.md here; per-candidate evidence: candidates_status.json. Raw xi cells live on bigblack only (~/eon/mql5/findings/audits/2026-06-03-.../eval_b5_10_xi_results/). Next: promote your picks -> merge both PRs -> dashboard:deploy. The 6 pre-registered cards #1/#3/#4/#14/#50/#71 remain untested-on-forex.
BAN3
PASS10
WATCH15
Candidates under evaluation (28) — BAN 3 · PASS 10 · WATCH 15
Gate of record: ρ worst-cell bands (PASS<0.85 · WATCH 0.85–0.95 · BAN≥0.95, ≥2-symbol) + h_norm degeneracy; ξ §B worst-cell bands per PR #564 (PASS xi_worst<0.50 · BAN xi_worst>0.95 ∧ breadth≥0.80 · else WATCH). Every verdict is shown with the empirical numbers that back it — no evidence, no verdict. SSoT: candidates_status.json.
| card | candidate | substrate | empirical evidence (Spearman ρ · h_norm · Chatterjee ξ) | verdict | updated (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | l_kurtosis_tau4 | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.950 vs anderson_darling_a2 · med=0.871 · watch-cells=113/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.778 · breadth=0.73 vs anderson_darling_a2 (XAGUSD_5_live_tail_asian) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 5 | moors_octile_kurtosis | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.947 vs anderson_darling_a2 · med=0.726 · watch-cells=18/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.733 · breadth=0.16 vs anderson_darling_a2 (XAGUSD_50_covid_crash_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 8 | kelly_decile_skewness | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.841 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.748 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.473 · breadth=0.00 vs mann_kendall_z (EURUSD_5_gold_parabola_allsess) | WATCH sibling-demoted | 2026-07-03T00:07:01Z |
| 11 | katz_fd | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.902 vs sevcik_fd · med=0.852 · watch-cells=95/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.617 · breadth=0.29 vs sevcik_fd (EURUSD_2_eur_parity_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 12 | petrosian_fd | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.966 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate · med=0.522 · watch-cells=1/174 h_norm min=0.989 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.840 · breadth=0.04 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate (XAUUSD_5_gold_parabola_asian) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 15 | hjorth_complexity | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.958 vs sevcik_fd · med=0.919 · watch-cells=141/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ not run — excluded at rho stage (BAN) | BAN rho-evaluated | 2026-07-02T05:43:37Z |
| 18 | vonneumann_ratio | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.938 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate · med=0.495 · watch-cells=2/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.697 · breadth=0.02 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate (XAUUSD_5_gold_parabola_asian) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 19 | bartels_rank_vn_ratio | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.851 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate · med=0.438 · watch-cells=1/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.571 · breadth=0.01 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate (XAUUSD_5_gold_parabola_asian) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 22 | difference_sign_test_z | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.929 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.826 · watch-cells=64/174 h_norm min=0.985 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.613 · breadth=0.16 vs mann_kendall_z (XAUUSD_25_gold_rally_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 23 | cox_stuart_trend_z | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.978 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.968 · watch-cells=15/174 h_norm min=0.827 · alive ξ not run — excluded at rho stage (BAN) | BAN rho-evaluated | 2026-07-02T05:43:37Z |
| 26 | ehlers_increment_asymmetry | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.813 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.642 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.531 · breadth=0.00 vs mann_kendall_z (XAUUSD_50_gold_parabola_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 29 | costa_accel_decel_asymmetry | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.935 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.879 · watch-cells=142/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.651 · breadth=0.55 vs mann_kendall_z (XAGUSD_5_midcycle_range_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 39 | empirical_cumulative_entropy | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.956 vs anderson_darling_a2 · med=0.770 · watch-cells=28/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.743 · breadth=0.23 vs anderson_darling_a2 (XAGUSD_50_covid_crash_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 45 | heikin_ashi_open_gap_sign | ohlc_bar | ρ worst|ρ|=0.756 vs lookback_twap_position_q1000 · med=0.459 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.451 · breadth=0.00 vs lookback_twap_position_q1000 (XAUUSD_50_gold_rally_allsess) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 51 | overnight_gap_logret_sq | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.574 vs ma1_noise_variance_u2_bar · med=0.258 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.365 · breadth=0.00 vs bid_low (EURUSD_2_midcycle_range_londonny) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 56 | hvg_tetradic_motif_profile_entropy | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.782 vs hvg_clustering · med=0.596 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.486 · breadth=0.00 vs hvg_clustering (XAGUSD_10_gold_parabola_allsess) | WATCH sibling-demoted | 2026-07-03T00:07:01Z |
| 58 | hvg_mean_degree_excess | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.843 vs hvg_mean_shortest_path_length · med=0.651 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=0.996 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.417 · breadth=0.00 vs hvg_clustering (XAUUSD_10_gold_rally_londonny) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 59 | hvg_forward_visibility_horizon_mean_bar | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.642 vs hvg_mean_shortest_path_length · med=0.344 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.325 · breadth=0.00 vs mann_kendall_z (EURUSD_2_midcycle_range_allsess) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 60 | vg_time_directed_clustering_kld | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.771 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.258 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.260 · breadth=0.00 vs signal_noise_ratio_bar (EURUSD_2_midcycle_range_londonny) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 66 | categorical_recurrence_rate_close_ties | close | ρ worst|ρ|=0.813 vs sevcik_fd · med=0.652 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=0.966 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.549 · breadth=0.00 vs sevcik_fd (EURUSD_3_lowvol_grind_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 78 | hoeffding_phi_squared_midreturn_duration | ret_dur | ρ worst|ρ|=0.617 vs anderson_darling_a2 · med=0.187 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.284 · breadth=0.00 vs roll_spread_bps (XAGUSD_10_live_tail_allsess) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 80 | gini_correlation_asymmetry_signedreturn_spread | ret_spread | ρ worst|ρ|=0.552 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.305 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.309 · breadth=0.00 vs signal_rv_two_scale_bar (GBPUSD_10_gold_rally_londonny) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 98 | sign_markov_inout_strength_asymmetry_flux | signs | ρ worst|ρ|=0.428 vs anderson_darling_a2 · med=0.079 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=0.260 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.365 · breadth=0.00 vs roll_spread_bps (EURUSD_10_lowvol_grind_allsess) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 99 | groeneveld_meeden_b3_skewness | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.831 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.735 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.477 · breadth=0.00 vs mann_kendall_z (GBPUSD_10_lowvol_grind_allsess) | WATCH sibling-demoted | 2026-07-03T00:07:01Z |
| 100 | hl_pseudomedian_minus_median_gap | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.902 vs mann_kendall_z · med=0.783 · watch-cells=14/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.563 · breadth=0.02 vs mann_kendall_z (XAUUSD_50_gold_rally_allsess) | WATCH sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 107 | etc_effort_to_compress_logret_sign | signs | ρ worst|ρ|=0.667 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate · med=0.225 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=0.938 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.455 · breadth=0.00 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate (XAUUSD_5_gold_parabola_asian) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 108 | sequitur_grammar_compression_ratio_logret_sign | signs | ρ worst|ρ|=0.424 vs sign_two_state_entropy_rate · med=0.102 · watch-cells=0/174 h_norm min=0.981 · alive ξ xi_worst=0.297 · breadth=0.00 vs roll_spread_bps (EURUSD_2_midcycle_range_allsess) | PASS sibling-audited | 2026-07-02T23:53:14Z |
| 113 | ramsey_rothman_bicovariance_gamma21_lag1_midlogret | logret | ρ worst|ρ|=0.995 vs pomeau_irreversibility_lag1 · med=0.191 · watch-cells=13/174 h_norm min=1.000 · alive ξ not run — excluded at rho stage (BAN) | BAN rho-evaluated | 2026-07-02T05:43:37Z |
Iteration ledger (every loop event, newest last)
| # | event | phase | verdict | what happened | ts (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | launched | sweep | PENDING | S0 ground+gate+launch (2 repairs, both documented). (1) numpy 2.5.0 release broke unpinned uv resolution (antr | 2026-07-02T03:54:47Z |
| 01 | rho-aggregated-xi-launched | sweep | PENDING | The first measurement pass over all 28 new forex candidate features finished cleanly overnight. We then graded | 2026-07-02T05:45:23Z |
| 02 | xi-aggregated | sweep | PASS | The second, stricter test on the 25 surviving candidates is done. This test (Chatterjee xi) checks whether any | 2026-07-02T06:44:09Z |
| 03 | prs-opened | sweep | PASS | Both review packages are now open: one in the code repository with all the measurements and verdicts, and one | 2026-07-02T23:08:32Z |
| 04 | sibling-audit | sweep | WATCH | A follow-up audit asked a question the main evaluation did not: are any of the surviving candidates duplicates | 2026-07-02T23:53:35Z |
| 05 | sibling-demotion | sweep | WATCH | The operator ruled that candidates duplicating each other cannot be labeled clean. Three previously-clean cand | 2026-07-03T00:07:16Z |