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Modeled reserve
Booked reserve
Adjustment to model
Selected candidate
Information cutoff
Terminal age
Historical score
Model notes
Reserve position
Origin reserves
The latest observed cumulative loss, modeled ultimate, and booked reserve for each origin.
Forecasting through time
Model evidence
Selected settings
Candidate ranking
Eligible candidates are ranked by mean historical diagonal RMSE. Lower scores indicate smaller historical errors.
Historical diagonal scores
Each score uses absolute actual movement as its weight. Failed or incomplete intervals remain visible.
Development factors
Factor observation selection
Source and record provenance
Saved source history
Saved CSV observations available by the selection cutoff.
Documented judgment
Review decision
Decision history
Activity
Recorded actions, reasons, and authors for this run.