Fig-3B reproduction — reduced-scale ensemble vs acceptance band
Increment-9 CAPSTONE — run_full_model ensemble vs targets/fig3b.json
in-band at reduced scale
0 / 12 observables
reduced-scale config
2 reps · 15×15 cells
paper-scale ensemble still required
Phase B (Mac mini)
Cell counts — ensemble mean (solid) vs digitized Fig-3B band (shaded)
Extracellular virus — ensemble mean vs Fig-3B band
Reduced-scale, band_eval.passed=False — NO reproduction claimed. `run.repro_fig3b` wires every Increment 0-8 mechanism into ONE per-MCS loop (`run_full_model`) and evaluates the ensemble mean against the digitized Fig-3B acceptance bands (`targets/fig3b.json`, `bands.evaluate_study`). At this reduced-scale config (2 replicas, 15×15 cells, 20 records, ~0.10 simulated days) 0 of 12 observables land in-band at every digitized checkpoint — expected at this small population/short-duration scale, not a mechanism failure. The mechanisms are wired and source-faithful; field/coupling MAGNITUDES remain calibration-pending. Only the paper-scale 50-replica, 35×35-cell, ~3.5-day ensemble (Mac-mini Phase-B follow-up) can set a `reproduced` verdict — this card must not be read as one.