Metadata-Version: 2.4
Name: carbon-sinks-utac
Version: 1.0.0
Summary: UTAC model of global carbon sink capacity, incorporating both the 2025 ocean CO2-uptake upward correction and the 2026 land carbon-sink downward correction
Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/carbon-sinks-utac
Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/carbon-sinks-utac
Author: Römer, Johann
License: MIT
License-File: LICENSE
Requires-Python: >=3.11
Provides-Extra: dev
Requires-Dist: mypy>=1.10.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pre-commit>=3.7.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest-cov>=5.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest>=8.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.6.0; extra == 'dev'
Description-Content-Type: text/markdown

# carbon-sinks-utac

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[![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-green.svg)](LICENSE)

GenesisAeon Package 59 — combines two real, independent 2025/2026 corrections to
global natural carbon sink capacity, plus a SPECULATIVE UTAC/CREP sink-stress
bridge (this package's own, not established science — see
[DISCLAIMER.md](DISCLAIMER.md)).

## What's real here

- **Global Carbon Budget 2025** (ESSD 18, 3211, 2026): 2024 totals — 11.6 GtC/yr
  anthropogenic emissions, 3.4 GtC/yr ocean sink, 1.9 GtC/yr land sink, 7.9 GtC/yr
  atmospheric growth (with the GCB's own disclosed ~1.6 GtC/yr budget imbalance).
- **Ocean sink correction (2025, real, upward)**: "Asymmetric bubble-mediated gas
  transfer enhances global ocean CO2 uptake", Nature Communications 16, 10595
  (2025) — Plymouth Marine Laboratory & GEOMAR. Finds ocean CO2 uptake ~15%
  higher (average 1991-2020) than conventional estimates once bubble-transfer
  asymmetry is accounted for.
- **Land sink correction (2026, real, downward)**: O'Sullivan, M. et al., "An
  improved approach to estimate the natural land carbon sink", npj Climate and
  Atmospheric Science 9, 29 (2026). Finds the 2015-2024 decadal land sink is
  ~20% smaller than previously estimated (3.00 → 2.42 PgC/yr), because older
  models assumed fixed pre-industrial land cover.

## Why both corrections, not just one

A package reporting only the negative land-sink correction would itself be an
unbalanced, overly pessimistic picture — exactly the kind of "compounding
crisis" overstatement this ecosystem's citation-accuracy discipline exists to
catch. `sink_revision.py` computes the **net** effect of both real corrections
together. The honest finding: crediting the real ocean-sink upgrade does
**not** flip the overall picture positive — the land-sink correction is
larger, so the net revision to estimated natural sink capacity is still a
reduction, just a smaller one than looking at the land correction alone would
suggest.

## What's SPECULATIVE

`utac_bridge.py` maps a "sink-efficiency deficit" (how far current sink
efficiency sits below a reference value) onto a UTAC steepness `beta`, using
the same `K / driver` convention used elsewhere in the ecosystem. Unlike
`amoc-utac` or `amazon-utac`, there is **no established bistable tipping-point
threshold** for "carbon sink collapse" in the cited literature — this bridge
is this package's own untested framework choice, not a re-derivation of a
validated result.

## Quickstart

```bash
pip install carbon-sinks-utac
```

```python
from carbon_sinks_utac import CarbonSinksUTAC, compute_net_sink_revision

print(compute_net_sink_revision().summary())

sys = CarbonSinksUTAC()
result = sys.run_cycle()
print(result["net_revision_summary"])
```

## Development

```bash
pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest
```

## Citation

See [CITATION.cff](CITATION.cff) and [.zenodo.json](.zenodo.json).
