<forecast_context>
<dataset>
- Observations: 204
- Series: 1
- Frequency: MS
- Date range: 1991-07-01 to 2008-06-01
- Target: x
- Exogenous columns: none
- Target statistics: min 0.3362, max 1.257, mean 0.7682, std 0.2251
- Missing values: none
- Index irregularities: none detected
</dataset>
<profile_decision>
A single-series ML forecaster (ForecasterRecursive) is recommended. Data: 204 observations, 'MS' frequency. Alternative forecasters: ['ForecasterDirect', 'ForecasterFoundation', 'ForecasterStats']. Estimator: Ridge. A linear model is preferred because the dataset is small (204 observations < 250); gradient boosting is offered as an alternative once more data is available. Alternative estimators: ['RandomForestRegressor', 'LGBMRegressor'].
- Significant lags (partial autocorrelation, strongest first): 1, 13, 12, 11, 10, 14, 9
- Suggested window features: mean(window=3), std(window=3), mean(window=12), mean(window=36)
- Suggested calendar features: month, quarter
</profile_decision>
<forecast_plan>
- Forecaster: ForecasterStats
- Steps: 12
- Estimator: Arima
- Primary metric: mean_absolute_error
- Chosen by the user instead of the rules: forecaster
- Plan: ForecasterStats + Arima. No lag or window features: the statistical model estimates its own autoregressive and seasonal structure. MAE is interpretable, robust to outliers, and works at any scale.

Note: A validated Python script implementing this plan is generated separately. Do not generate code yourself.
</forecast_plan>
<backtesting_strategy>
- steps: 12
- initial_train_size: 2003-04-01
- refit: True
- fixed_train_size: True
- gap: 0
- fold_stride: 12
- skip_folds: None
- allow_incomplete_fold: True
- differentiation: None
- n_folds: 6
- n_fits: 6
</backtesting_strategy>
<deterministic_summary>
Initial training up to 2003-04-01, fixed window, refit every fold (6 trainings), 12-step horizon, 6 folds. ForecasterStats is refitted in every fold whatever `refit` says: skforecast requires it for ARIMA models. Initial training size by default: 70% of the 204 observations (142), up to 2003-04-01.
</deterministic_summary>
</forecast_context>
