hm104:MPROB 门槛版 / mprob-only top35 与 SSM 两版对比(gap5)

|RankIC| 与多头超额收益统一取 hm104_mprob 那轮的完整回测表(21968 个因子同一口径); 多头超额 = hedge_annualized_return(多头组年化 − 指数年化)。名单一律为去重后的 35 个。

原版 hm104(IC-only)hm104_ssm2(SSM>=0.5)hm104_ssm3(SSM>=0.9)hm104_mprob(MPROB>=0.315)mprob-only top35(去重0.5)mprob-only top35(去重0.8)|IC| top35多头超额 top35

|RankIC| 分布

|RankIC| 分布(各名单)0.0050.0140.0220.0300.0390.047|RankIC|原版 hm104(IC-only)中位 0.023hm104_ssm2(SSM>=0…中位 0.019hm104_ssm3(SSM>=0…中位 0.017hm104_mprob(MPROB…中位 0.023mprob-only top35(…中位 0.015mprob-only top35(…中位 0.018|IC| top35中位 0.038多头超额 top35中位 0.022

多头超额收益分布(年化)

多头超额收益分布(年化)2%5%7%10%12%15%多头超额原版 hm104(IC-only)中位 8%hm104_ssm2(SSM>=0…中位 9%hm104_ssm3(SSM>=0…中位 9%hm104_mprob(MPROB…中位 8%mprob-only top35(…中位 9%mprob-only top35(…中位 10%|IC| top35中位 8%多头超额 top35中位 13%

mprob-only top35(MPROB 降序 + 相关性去重 0.5)逐因子明细

因子名IC_mean|RankIC|多头超额多空年化MPROBSSM
x60y3_ba_cold_f05_corr_f35_mean_smooth_10+0.02330.0233+12.40%+18.04%0.9821.000
x60y3_ba_hot_f00_median_mean_smooth_5+0.02500.0250+12.34%+18.62%0.9821.000
x15y10_ba_cold_f00_median_smooth_1-0.02330.0233+11.85%+16.91%0.9791.000
hotpool_ext_ind_rel_x60y3_buy_hot_rk_vol_curvature_fold_mean_smooth_20-0.01790.0179+10.50%+13.78%0.9551.000
x15y10_ba_hot_f05_corr_f34_max_smooth_5-0.01650.0165+11.31%+14.36%0.9491.000
x15y10_ba_cold_f08_std_fold_max_smooth_5-0.01560.0156+9.38%+16.73%0.9401.000
x60y3_ba_cold_f00_corr_f28_max_smooth_10-0.01640.0164+9.32%+10.65%0.9401.000
x60y3_ba_hot_f28_trend_max_smooth_20-0.02050.0205+9.53%+14.38%0.9370.723
hotpool_ext_indpool_x15y10_ba_hot_f31_trend_max_smooth_10-0.01750.0175+10.06%+15.71%0.9321.000
hotpool_ext_ind_rel_x15y10_ba_cold_rk_buy_max_range_product_fold_mean_smooth_20-0.01270.0127+8.64%+10.75%0.9281.000
hotpool_ext_ind_rel_x60y3_buy_cold_rk_vol_curvature_fold_mean_smooth_5-0.01600.0160+8.70%+11.77%0.9271.000
x60y3_buy_hot_f08_corr_f21_fold_mean_smooth_10-0.01070.0107+9.45%+11.40%0.9271.000
x60y3_ba_cold_f18_median_mean_smooth_10-0.01370.0137+9.45%+12.73%0.9260.817
x60y3_ba_hot_f34_mean_fold_max_smooth_10-0.01090.0109+8.50%+12.13%0.9251.000
hotpool_ext_ind_rel_x60y3_ba_hot_rk_vol_period_diff_mean_smooth_10-0.01050.0105+9.34%+12.61%0.9230.994
x15y10_ba_cold_f11_std_mean_smooth_5-0.01070.0107+9.01%+11.69%0.9231.000
x60y3_ba_cold_f09_p95_min_smooth_5+0.01630.0163+10.54%+12.26%0.9221.000
hotpool_ext_indpool_x60y3_ba_hot_f13_entropy_1d_mean_smooth_5+0.01160.0116+9.34%+11.64%0.9210.898
hotpool_ext_ind_rel_x60y3_ba_hot_rk_vol_autocorr1_abs_fold_mean_smooth_5-0.01740.0174+9.53%+12.19%0.9210.928
x60y3_buy_cold_f00_corr_f28_max_smooth_5-0.01350.0135+8.07%+9.75%0.9171.000
x15y10_ba_hot_f16_corr_f28_max_smooth_5-0.01280.0128+8.03%+10.23%0.9161.000
x15y10_ba_cold_f21_corr_f28_fold_mean_smooth_5-0.01050.0105+7.71%+9.72%0.9140.949
x60y3_buy_hot_f09_p95_fold_max_smooth_20-0.01080.0108+8.27%+10.06%0.9140.959
x15y10_ba_hot_f05_cv_min_smooth_10+0.01470.0147+9.23%+11.49%0.9111.000
x15y10_ba_cold_f07_p75_mean_smooth_20+0.01160.0116+8.85%+11.48%0.9101.000
x60y3_ba_hot_f09_corr_f30_min_smooth_5+0.01430.0143+9.49%+10.59%0.9101.000
hotpool_ext_indpool_x15y10_ba_hot_f28_period_diff_mean_smooth_5-0.00850.0085+9.28%+11.40%0.9090.948
x60y3_ba_cold_f00_corr_f31_mean_smooth_10-0.01130.0113+8.98%+9.91%0.9091.000
x15y10_ba_cold_f01_autocorr1_max_smooth_5-0.01040.0104+9.40%+10.73%0.9080.942
x15y10_ba_cold_f28_lz_complexity_fold_mean_smooth_5-0.01550.0155+8.80%+11.50%0.9070.836
hotpool_ext_indpool_x60y3_ba_hot_f31_period_diff_fold_max_smooth_10-0.01930.0193+8.48%+13.13%0.9071.000
x15y10_ba_cold_f28_autocorr1_fold_max_smooth_5-0.01820.0182+8.55%+13.07%0.9050.834
x60y3_ba_hot_f03_cv_mean_smooth_20+0.01430.0143+9.00%+11.63%0.9040.990
x15y10_ba_cold_f06_corr_f36_mean_smooth_5+0.01460.0146+8.28%+9.71%0.9040.840
x60y3_buy_cold_f28_p95_max_smooth_20-0.03160.0316+9.16%+15.13%0.9020.942

MPROB 排名深度扫描(取 MPROB 前 N → 去重 0.5 → 最多 35)

深度去重后|IC| 中位多头超额中位多空年化中位夏普中位MPROB 中位SSM 中位与原版重合
MPROB 前 2030.023312.34%18.04%3.370.9821.0000
MPROB 前 3530.023312.34%18.04%3.370.9821.0000
MPROB 前 5030.023312.34%18.04%3.370.9821.0000
MPROB 前 10030.023312.34%18.04%3.370.9821.0000
MPROB 前 20050.023311.85%16.91%3.230.9791.0000
MPROB 前 500130.01659.53%14.36%2.970.9401.0000
MPROB 前 1000320.01459.33%11.73%2.610.9221.0000
MPROB 前 2000350.01469.28%11.69%2.570.9211.0000
MPROB 前 5000350.01469.28%11.69%2.570.9211.0000