Metadata-Version: 2.5
Name: climate-disease-attribution-utac
Version: 1.0.1
Summary: Climate-attributable disease burden -- WHO 2024 dengue/cholera surveillance, PNAS 2025 dengue climate-warming attribution (Childs/Lyberger/Harris/Burke/Mordecai et al.), Reyburn et al. 2011's Zanzibar cholera-temperature time series, Lancet Countdown 2025 heat mortality (Romanello/Walawender et al.), and Mora et al. 2022's cross-cutting pathogen climate-sensitivity synthesis, no UTAC/CREP bridge
Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/climate-disease-attribution-utac
Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/climate-disease-attribution-utac
Author: Römer, Johann
License: MIT
License-File: LICENSE
Requires-Python: >=3.11
Provides-Extra: dev
Requires-Dist: mypy>=1.10.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pre-commit>=3.7.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest-cov>=5.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest>=8.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.6.0; extra == 'dev'
Description-Content-Type: text/markdown

# climate-disease-attribution-utac

GenesisAeon Package 111 — climate-attributable disease burden.
Independently re-verified from a "klima_flucht_gesundheit" research
report's disease chapter, after finding that report's in-text
citation hyperlinks were systematically mismatched to their claims
(the anchor text/URL pair maps correctly in the document's own
bibliography, but is attached to the wrong sentence in the body
text) — every figure here was re-derived from the primary source
directly, not copied from that document. **Deliberately has no
UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge** — see [DISCLAIMER.md](DISCLAIMER.md).

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon,
written for general audiences), see [WHITEPAPER.md](WHITEPAPER.md).

## Deliberately narrower than the source report

Only the three pathways with quantitatively hard climate attribution
(vector-borne, waterborne, direct heat) plus one cross-cutting
synthesis metric are included. **Deliberately excluded**: climate-
migration causality itself (the source report's own conclusion:
statistically weak, contested — see its Kap. 5.1/5.2), funding/legal/
policy content, and 2025/2026 time-bound outbreak snapshots (Dougui
Chad, Cox's Bazar, Zamzam) — the same "no time-bound current-
conditions snapshots, no governance/policy content" precedent applied
throughout this ecosystem.

## Deliberately not one-sided

This package includes a real **correction** of the source report's
own numbers, not just confirmation of its claims:
`source_document_figure_was_wrong()` returns `True` — the source
stated the Lancet Countdown 2025 heat-mortality rate increase since
the 1990s as 23%; independent re-verification against three separate
secondary reports of the same 2025 Lancet Countdown found **63%**,
not 23%. It also includes a claim-type honesty check:
`is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution()` returns `False` — Mora
et al. (2022)'s "58% of diseases are climate-sensitive" is a
disease-*count* fraction, not the same kind of claim as a
disease-*burden*-attribution fraction like dengue's 18%.

## What's real here

- **WHO (2025, *Weekly Epidemiological Record*)** — 2024 was the
  highest global dengue burden ever recorded: **14,434,584 cases**,
  **11,201 deaths**, all 6 WHO regions.
- **Childs, Lyberger, Harris, Burke, Mordecai et al. (2025, *PNAS*)**
  — a real climate-attribution estimate: **18% (95% CI: 11–27%)** of
  historical dengue incidence across 21 countries is attributable to
  anthropogenic warming (>4.6M extra infections/year) — a
  probabilistic estimate with an explicit confidence interval, not a
  single deterministic number.
- **WHO cholera 2024 situation reporting** — **560,823 cases /
  6,028 deaths** (final, revised); deaths rose ~50% year-on-year even
  as cases stayed roughly flat vs. 2023 — a real, observed
  case-fatality pattern, documented without adopting a specific
  causal claim about why.
- **Reyburn, Kim, Emch, Khatib, von Seidlein & Ali (2011, *American
  Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene*)** — a real, dated
  (1997–2006) Zanzibar time series: a 1°C temperature rise (4-month
  lag) is associated with a **2-fold** increase in cholera cases.
- **Romanello, Walawender et al. (2025, *The Lancet*, Lancet
  Countdown)** — **546,000** average annual heat deaths, a
  **63%** rate increase since the 1990s (corrected from the source
  report's erroneous 23%).
- **Mora, McKenzie, Gaw et al. (2022, *Nature Climate Change*)** —
  the honesty-check citation: **218 of 375 (58%)** known human
  pathogenic diseases have at least one documented climate-
  aggravation pathway — a disease-count fraction, not a burden-
  attribution fraction.

## Quickstart

```bash
pip install climate-disease-attribution-utac
```

```python
from climate_disease_attribution_utac import (
    WHO_DENGUE_2024,
    DENGUE_CLIMATE_ATTRIBUTION,
    is_deterministic_not_probabilistic,
    WHO_CHOLERA_2024,
    ZANZIBAR_CHOLERA_CLIMATE_LINK,
    death_toll_rose_faster_than_case_count,
    HEAT_MORTALITY_TREND,
    source_document_figure_was_wrong,
    PATHOGEN_CLIMATE_SENSITIVITY,
    is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution,
)

print(WHO_DENGUE_2024.cases)                        # 14434584
print(DENGUE_CLIMATE_ATTRIBUTION.fraction)           # 0.18
print(is_deterministic_not_probabilistic())          # False
print(WHO_CHOLERA_2024.cases_final)                  # 560823
print(ZANZIBAR_CHOLERA_CLIMATE_LINK.temperature_case_multiplier_per_1c)  # 2.0
print(death_toll_rose_faster_than_case_count())      # True
print(HEAT_MORTALITY_TREND.rate_increase_pct_since_1990s)  # 63.0
print(source_document_figure_was_wrong())            # True
print(PATHOGEN_CLIMATE_SENSITIVITY.diseases_aggravated)  # 218
print(is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution())    # False
```

## Development

```bash
pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest
```

## Citation

See [CITATION.cff](CITATION.cff) and [.zenodo.json](.zenodo.json).
