poisson-prove · could not detect  mock-agent@v0 2026-10-14 a → b      prove-runs
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  mixed  timeout: 1 lower, 1 higher · violated: 6 lower, 0 higher (paired test  
         on shared seeds)                                                       
                                                                                
  asked      could each unchanged condition have caught a change of 0.200, if it
             alone changed, from where it was?                                  
  answer     7 of 10 unchanged rows could; 3 could not tell                     
  threshold  0.200 (recorded)                                                   
  flaggable  18 of 18 rows can be flagged: with 100 pairs the smallest possible 
             p is 1.6e-30, and a flag needs less than 0.003 (q 0.05 over 18     
             tests)                                                             
  design     0.262 at its worst base rate, 0.400 (Fisher, q 0.05 over 9 tests, 4
             times in 5)                                                        
  5 more lines above the table: m shows them                                    
  task_id · tool_fail_rate  event     before  rise   fall             could tell
› checkout · 0.3            timeout    0.010  0.146  none detectable  no        
  search · 0.55             timeout    0.010  0.146  none detectable  no        
  checkout · 0.55           timeout    0.040  0.183  none detectable  no        
  refund · 0                violated   0.000  0.123  no room          yes       
  ↓ 10 more                                                                     
                                                                                
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DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
  BBBBB                                                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
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  DDDDDD                                                                        
  DDDDDDDDD                                                                     
  DDDDDDDDD                                                                     
                                                                                
                                                                                
  DDDDDD                                                                        
                                                                                
  DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD                                    
  DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
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  DDDDDDDDD                                                                     
                                                                                
DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
  BB   BBBBB   BBB   B DDDDDD   BBB DDDD   B DDDD   B DDDD   B DDDD   B DDDD    
