WHO Surveillance Data -- 1996 to 2020

Disease Outbreak
Early Warning System

Automated epidemiological surveillance platform analyzing WHO outbreak data across 8 major infectious diseases and multiple global regions. Powered by composite risk scoring, growth rate analysis, and multi-signal early warning detection.

View Dashboard Download PDF Report Methodology
Diseases Monitored
0
Infectious disease categories
Regions Covered
0
Global surveillance zones
Data Timespan
0
Years of outbreak records
Alert Levels
0
GREEN / YELLOW / ORANGE / RED
Coverage

Monitored Diseases

The system currently tracks 8 infectious diseases sourced from WHO outbreak records.

COVID-19

Coronavirus / Normal lethality

SARS

Coronavirus / Brutal lethality

Avian Influenza

Influenza A / Normal lethality

Ebola

Filovirus / Brutal lethality

Cholera

Vibrio cholerae / Normal lethality

MERS-CoV

Coronavirus / Brutal lethality

Dengue

Flavivirus / Normal lethality

Influenza

Influenza virus / Normal lethality
Analytics

Surveillance Dashboard

Visualizations generated from the WHO outbreak data pipeline. Click any chart to expand.

Global Disease Case Trends Time Series
Global disease case trends from 1996 to 2020
Monthly case counts per disease with 6-month rolling average
Regional Outbreak Risk Heatmap Risk Matrix
Regional outbreak risk heatmap showing alert levels
Alert level matrix: Region vs Disease (latest available month)
Regional Disease Burden Comparison
Regional disease burden comparison chart
Stacked bar and horizontal bar charts of all-time regional burden
Growth Rate Analysis Velocity
Rolling 3-month growth rate by disease
Rolling 3-month growth rate with alert threshold lines
Alert Level Distribution Over Time Timeline
Alert level distribution stacked area chart
Stacked area chart showing how alert levels evolved across all region-disease pairs
Composite Monitoring Dashboard Summary
Composite early warning monitoring dashboard
Combined multi-panel dashboard: trends, heatmap, alert distribution, burden share, risk regions, and signal table
Classification

Alert Level System

Four-tier alert classification based on growth rate and epidemic threshold exceedance.

GREEN -- Normal

Cases below epidemic threshold. Growth rate under 10%. Routine monitoring only.

YELLOW -- Watch

Threshold exceedance 1.0-2.0x or growth rate 10-25%. Increased surveillance recommended.

ORANGE -- Warning

Threshold exceedance 2.0-3.0x or growth rate 25-50%. Activate preparedness protocols.

RED -- Critical

Threshold exceedance above 3.0x or growth rate above 50%. Immediate response required.

Technical

Methodology

Core analytical components powering the early warning system.

Step 01
Epidemic Threshold
Baseline calculated from pre-2019 records using historical mean plus 1.96 standard deviations. Cases are compared against this threshold to compute exceedance ratios.
threshold = mean + 1.96 * std
Step 02
Rt Estimation
Effective reproduction number proxy computed as the ratio of rolling average cases in the current window versus the previous window (3-month default).
Rt = rolling_avg(t) / rolling_avg(t-w)
Step 03
Composite Risk Score
Weighted combination of normalized growth rate (30%), incidence rate (25%), threshold exceedance (25%), and case fatality rate (20%). Scaled to 0-100.
risk = 0.30*GR + 0.25*IR + 0.25*TE + 0.20*CFR
Step 04
Early Warning Flags
Triggered when at least 2 of 4 signals are active: Rt >= 1.5, growth >= 20%, threshold exceedance >= 1.5x, and velocity >= 10 pp/month.
EW flag = (active_signals >= 2)
Step 05
Doubling Time
Estimated from monthly growth rate using the logarithmic doubling time formula. Returns infinity when growth rate is zero or negative.
T2 = ln(2) / ln(1 + growth_rate)
Step 06
Trend Slope
Linear regression slope computed over a trailing 6-month window to detect sustained upward or downward case trajectories.
slope = linregress(time, cases).slope