Why ARM

WEAKENING -0.0218

score -0.0218 sits in the WEAKENING band [-0.20, +0.00) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12
-0.021
C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity w=0.12
-0.778
C4 Macro regime w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05
+0.000
C6 Event impact w=0.18
-0.024
C7 Peer correlation w=0.10
-0.055
C8 Cascade effect w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust w=0.08
-0.067

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

RECONCILED · CURRENT_CONFIG_RECONCILIATION_ONLY

sum(weight * confidence * score) / sum(weight * confidence), excluding not_implemented components

ComponentConfidence inputNominal weightEffective weightContributionInput status
c10.90.120.180451-0.00378947NOT_ASSESSED
c200.0800NOT_ASSESSED
c30.80.120.160401-0.124844NOT_ASSESSED
c40.850.150.2130330.12782FROZEN_2026-05-18
c50.30.050.02506270NOT_ASSESSED
c60.40.180.120301-0.00289783NOT_ASSESSED
c710.10.167084-0.00921044NOT_ASSESSED
c800.1200NOT_ASSESSED
c910.080.133668-0.00891117NOT_ASSESSED

Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.

Research interpretation and limits

In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:20.753137-06:00: 7 event objects from 7 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.

Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.

source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.

Excerpt comparison 3d03602a53ea: UNSUPPORTED_COMPARISON — The cited passage does not explicitly establish the classified comparison with expectations. Original classification retained as a historical record. Scope: published excerpt only.

Research guide / Guide de recherche

Evidence coverage — the four terms

84
ECS (0–100)
7
accepted events, 90d
21.2
days since latest event
4
distinct event types
1
substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.62 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 21.2 days ago
Child Jason S 10400 shares @ $300.00 on 2026-09-21 ($3,120,000)
source filing ↗
PRODUCT_LAUNCH magnitude 0.80 · direction +1 · 6-K · 26.4 days ago
As of March 2026, we have expanded our offerings to include Arm-designed silicon products with the introduction of the Arm AGI CPU.
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.20 · direction +0 · 6-K · 34.4 days ago
Results of 2026 Annual General Meeting of Arm Holdings plc On September 10, 2026, Arm Holdings plc (the “Company”) announced the results of its Annual General Meeting held on September 9, 2026 (the “AGM”).
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.53 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 44.2 days ago
Child Jason S 10400 shares @ $255.33 on 2026-08-27 ($2,655,432)
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.50 · direction +0 · 6-K · 65.4 days ago
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Annual General Meeting of Arm Holdings plc (the “Company”) will be held on 9 September 2026 at 3:00 p.m. (British Summer Time) to consider, and if thought fit, pass
source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

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Data through 2026-10-14 (last completed U.S. trading day); generated at 2026-10-15 02:45 UTC.