score +0.1855 sits in the WATCH band [+0.00, +0.20) of the published threshold table ·
snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited
Research and education only — not investment advice.
Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations.
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity
w=0.12
-0.070
C4 Macro regime
w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX
w=0.05
+0.554
C6 Event impact
w=0.18
+0.000
C7 Peer correlation
w=0.10
+0.223
C8 Cascade effect
w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust
w=0.08
+0.400
Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are
the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design —
evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.
Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.
Research interpretation and limits
In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:20.767076-06:00: 7 event objects from 7 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.
Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.
source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.
Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands
under this classification — coverage, not prediction.
Latest accepted events
OTHER_MATERIALmagnitude 0.20 · direction +0 ·
8-K · 6.3 days ago
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common Shares (par value $0.20 per Share) AXP New York Stock Exchange
OTHER_MATERIALmagnitude 0.20 · direction +0 ·
8-K · 29.8 days ago
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common Shares (par value $0.20 per Share) AXP New York Stock Exchange
OTHER_MATERIALmagnitude 0.20 · direction +0 ·
8-K · 58.6 days ago
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common Shares (par value $0.20 per Share) AXP New York Stock Exchange
OTHER_MATERIALmagnitude 0.20 · direction +0 ·
8-K · 63.4 days ago
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common Shares (par value $0.20 per Share) AXP New York Stock Exchange
Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label
legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.
Story membership
No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.
Research and education only — not investment advice.
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.