Why COP

NEUTRAL +0.2607

score +0.2607 sits in the NEUTRAL band [+0.20, +0.40) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12
+0.207
C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity w=0.12
+0.383
C4 Macro regime w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05
-0.128
C6 Event impact w=0.18
+0.000
C7 Peer correlation w=0.10
+0.224
C8 Cascade effect w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust w=0.08
-0.067

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

RECONCILED · CURRENT_CONFIG_RECONCILIATION_ONLY

sum(weight * confidence * score) / sum(weight * confidence), excluding not_implemented components

ComponentConfidence inputNominal weightEffective weightContributionInput status
c10.90.120.1923420.039911NOT_ASSESSED
c200.0800NOT_ASSESSED
c30.80.120.1709710.0654721NOT_ASSESSED
c40.850.150.227070.136242FROZEN_2026-05-18
c510.050.0890472-0.011373NOT_ASSESSED
c600.1800NOT_ASSESSED
c710.10.1780940.0399473NOT_ASSESSED
c800.1200NOT_ASSESSED
c910.080.142476-0.00949837NOT_ASSESSED

Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.

Research interpretation and limits

In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:20.819629-06:00: 5 event objects from 5 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.

Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.

source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.

Research guide / Guide de recherche

Evidence coverage — the four terms

64
ECS (0–100)
5
accepted events, 90d
51.4
days since latest event
3
distinct event types
1
substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.26 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 51.4 days ago
LUNDQUIST ANDREW D S 9487 shares @ $135.15 on 2026-08-21 ($1,282,168)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.40 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 54.3 days ago
Rose Kelly Brunetti S 15000 shares @ $134.51 on 2026-08-20 ($2,017,725)
source filing ↗
EXEC_CHANGE magnitude 0.80 · direction +0 · 8-K · 64.4 days ago
Item 5.02 Departures of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Cer
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.80 · direction +1 · 10-Q · 69.8 days ago
cop:NonOperatedJointVentureSupportingOilFieldsInTheKirkukAreaOfNorthernIraqMember 2026-07-01
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.50 · direction +1 · 8-K · 69.8 days ago
On August 6, 2026, ConocoPhillips issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

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Data through 2026-10-14 (last completed U.S. trading day); generated at 2026-10-15 02:45 UTC.