Why GLD

WATCH +0.0945

score +0.0945 sits in the WATCH band [+0.00, +0.20) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12

-0.214

C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08

+0.000

volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)

C3 Sector velocity w=0.12

+0.000

C4 Macro regime w=0.15

+0.600

macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration

C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05

+0.000

C6 Event impact w=0.18

+0.000

C7 Peer correlation w=0.10

+0.000

C8 Cascade effect w=0.12

+0.000

C9 Model trust w=0.08

-1.000

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

RECONCILED · CURRENT_CONFIG_RECONCILIATION_ONLY

sum(weight * confidence * score) / sum(weight * confidence), excluding not_implemented components

Component	Confidence input	Nominal weight	Effective weight	Contribution	Input status
c1	0.9	0.12	0.347826	-0.0746087	NOT_ASSESSED
c2	0	0.08	0	0	NOT_ASSESSED
c3	0.3	0.12	0.115942	0	NOT_ASSESSED
c4	0.85	0.15	0.410628	0.246377	FROZEN_2026-05-18
c5	0.3	0.05	0.0483092	0	NOT_ASSESSED
c6	0	0.18	0	0	NOT_ASSESSED
c7	0	0.1	0	0	NOT_ASSESSED
c8	0	0.12	0	0	NOT_ASSESSED
c9	0.3	0.08	0.0772947	-0.0772947	NOT_ASSESSED

Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.

Research interpretation and limits

In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:20.944183-06:00: 1 event objects from 1 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.

Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.

source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.

Research guide / Guide de recherche

Evidence coverage — the four terms

ECS (0–100)

accepted events, 90d

71.4

days since latest event

distinct event types

substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.20 · direction +0 · 10-Q · 71.4 days ago

The amounts reported for a Share outstanding may not accord with the change in aggregate gains and losses on investment for the period due to the timing of Share transactions in relation to the fluctuating fair values of the Trust's underlying investment.

source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

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Data through 2026-10-14 (last completed U.S. trading day); generated at 2026-10-15 02:45 UTC.