Why LLY

NEUTRAL +0.3647

score +0.3647 sits in the NEUTRAL band [+0.20, +0.40) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12
+0.309
C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity w=0.12
+0.821
C4 Macro regime w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05
+0.000
C6 Event impact w=0.18
+0.000
C7 Peer correlation w=0.10
+0.129
C8 Cascade effect w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust w=0.08
-0.444

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

RECONCILED · CURRENT_CONFIG_RECONCILIATION_ONLY

sum(weight * confidence * score) / sum(weight * confidence), excluding not_implemented components

ComponentConfidence inputNominal weightEffective weightContributionInput status
c10.90.120.2184020.0675956NOT_ASSESSED
c200.0800NOT_ASSESSED
c30.80.120.1941350.159362NOT_ASSESSED
c40.850.150.2578360.154702FROZEN_2026-05-18
c50.30.050.03033370NOT_ASSESSED
c600.1800NOT_ASSESSED
c710.10.2022240.0261484NOT_ASSESSED
c800.1200NOT_ASSESSED
c90.60.080.0970677-0.0431412NOT_ASSESSED

Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.

Excerpt corrections and quality flags

Original excerpts and their hashes are never edited; a corrected display excerpt is a separate annotation with its own digest and date. Detector hits stay SUSPECTED until verified against the primary document.

Research interpretation and limits

In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:21.082287-06:00: 5 event objects from 5 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.

Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.

source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.

Research guide / Guide de recherche

Evidence coverage — the four terms

63
ECS (0–100)
5
accepted events, 90d
57.3
days since latest event
3
distinct event types
1
substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

INSIDER_SELL magnitude 1.00 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 57.3 days ago
Jonsson Patrik S 6500 shares @ $1175.10 on 2026-08-17 ($7,638,150)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.47 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 64.3 days ago
Zakrowski Donald A S 2000 shares @ $1185.01 on 2026-08-10 ($2,370,020)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 1.00 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 65.3 days ago
Hakim Anat S 5000 shares @ $1190.00 on 2026-08-07 ($5,950,000)
source filing ↗
PRODUCT_LAUNCH magnitude 0.80 · direction +1 · 10-Q · 70.5 days ago
lly:MounjaroMember 2026-04-01 2026-06-30 0000059478 country:US lly:MounjaroMember 2025-04-01 2025-06-30
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.50 · direction +0 · 8-K · 70.8 days ago
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

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Data through 2026-10-14 (last completed U.S. trading day); generated at 2026-10-15 02:45 UTC.