Why LRCX

WATCH +0.0363

score +0.0363 sits in the WATCH band [+0.00, +0.20) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12
+0.245
C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity w=0.12
-0.778
C4 Macro regime w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05
+0.000
C6 Event impact w=0.18
+0.000
C7 Peer correlation w=0.10
+0.228
C8 Cascade effect w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust w=0.08
-0.400

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

RECONCILED · CURRENT_CONFIG_RECONCILIATION_ONLY

sum(weight * confidence * score) / sum(weight * confidence), excluding not_implemented components

ComponentConfidence inputNominal weightEffective weightContributionInput status
c10.90.120.2051280.050359NOT_ASSESSED
c200.0800NOT_ASSESSED
c30.80.120.182336-0.141917NOT_ASSESSED
c40.850.150.2421650.145299FROZEN_2026-05-18
c50.30.050.028490NOT_ASSESSED
c600.1800NOT_ASSESSED
c710.10.1899340.0433222NOT_ASSESSED
c800.1200NOT_ASSESSED
c910.080.151947-0.0607787NOT_ASSESSED

Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.

Research interpretation and limits

In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:21.096066-06:00: 9 event objects from 7 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.

Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.

source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.

Research guide / Guide de recherche

Evidence coverage — the four terms

77
ECS (0–100)
9
accepted events, 90d
34.4
days since latest event
3
distinct event types
1
substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

INSIDER_SELL magnitude 1.00 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 34.4 days ago
ARCHER TIMOTHY S 30000 shares @ $319.26 on 2026-09-09 ($9,577,800)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.60 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 34.4 days ago
Mayer Bethany S 9557 shares @ $314.74 on 2026-09-09 ($3,007,970)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 1.00 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 41.3 days ago
Varadarajan Seshasayee S 20000 shares @ $291.32 on 2026-09-02 ($5,826,400)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.71 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 41.3 days ago
Varadarajan Seshasayee S 12270 shares @ $291.32 on 2026-09-02 ($3,574,496)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 1.00 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 41.3 days ago
Varadarajan Seshasayee S 27480 shares @ $291.32 on 2026-09-02 ($8,005,474)
source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

YUCLAW · Home · Universe Explorer

Data through 2026-10-14 (last completed U.S. trading day); generated at 2026-10-15 02:45 UTC.