Why MS

WATCH +0.1132

score +0.1132 sits in the WATCH band [+0.00, +0.20) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12
-0.607
C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity w=0.12
-0.070
C4 Macro regime w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05
+0.554
C6 Event impact w=0.18
+0.000
C7 Peer correlation w=0.10
+0.197
C8 Cascade effect w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust w=0.08
+0.200

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

RECONCILED · CURRENT_CONFIG_RECONCILIATION_ONLY

sum(weight * confidence * score) / sum(weight * confidence), excluding not_implemented components

ComponentConfidence inputNominal weightEffective weightContributionInput status
c10.90.120.180753-0.109717NOT_ASSESSED
c200.0800NOT_ASSESSED
c30.80.120.160669-0.011258NOT_ASSESSED
c40.850.150.2133890.128033FROZEN_2026-05-18
c510.050.0836820.0463864NOT_ASSESSED
c60.20.180.0602510NOT_ASSESSED
c710.10.1673640.0329869NOT_ASSESSED
c800.1200NOT_ASSESSED
c910.080.1338910.0267782NOT_ASSESSED

Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.

Excerpt corrections and quality flags

Original excerpts and their hashes are never edited; a corrected display excerpt is a separate annotation with its own digest and date. Detector hits stay SUSPECTED until verified against the primary document.

Research interpretation and limits

In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:21.189073-06:00: 7 event objects from 5 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.

Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.

source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.

Research guide / Guide de recherche

Evidence coverage — the four terms

84
ECS (0–100)
7
accepted events, 90d
0.6
days since latest event
2
distinct event types
1
substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.20 · direction +0 · 8-K · 0.6 days ago
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant To Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.20 · direction +0 · 10-Q · 71.4 days ago
0000895421 2026-01-01 2026-06-30 0000895421 us-gaap:CommonClassAMember 2026-01-01 2026-06-30
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.04 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 77.3 days ago
SCHAPIRO MARY L S 1000 shares @ $212.06 on 2026-07-28 ($212,055)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.41 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 89.3 days ago
YESHAYA SHARON S 9172 shares @ $222.51 on 2026-07-16 ($2,040,862)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.28 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 89.3 days ago
YESHAYA SHARON S 6382 shares @ $222.51 on 2026-07-16 ($1,420,059)
source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

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Data through 2026-10-14 (last completed U.S. trading day); generated at 2026-10-15 02:45 UTC.