Why TSLA

WATCH +0.1457

score +0.1457 sits in the WATCH band [+0.00, +0.20) of the published threshold table · snapshot 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited

Research and education only — not investment advice. Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.

Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)

C1 Price momentum w=0.12
+0.114
C2 Volume confirmation w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity w=0.12
-0.156
C4 Macro regime w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX w=0.05
+0.000
C6 Event impact w=0.18
+0.116
C7 Peer correlation w=0.10
+0.000
C8 Cascade effect w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust w=0.08
-0.133

Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design — evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.

RECONCILED · CURRENT_CONFIG_RECONCILIATION_ONLY

sum(weight * confidence * score) / sum(weight * confidence), excluding not_implemented components

ComponentConfidence inputNominal weightEffective weightContributionInput status
c10.90.120.2335140.0266205NOT_ASSESSED
c200.0800NOT_ASSESSED
c30.80.120.207568-0.0323741NOT_ASSESSED
c40.850.150.2756760.165405FROZEN_2026-05-18
c50.30.050.03243240NOT_ASSESSED
c60.20.180.07783780.00906643NOT_ASSESSED
c700.100NOT_ASSESSED
c800.1200NOT_ASSESSED
c910.080.172973-0.0230631NOT_ASSESSED

Confidence is a model input, not a calibrated probability. Current configuration weights do not establish historical weights. C4 is disclosed as frozen; no past score is changed.

Research interpretation and limits

In the 90 days ending 2026-10-14T20:45:21.409666-06:00: 4 event objects from 4 distinct accessions; 0 objects lack an accession. These are descriptive counts, not independent observations.

Composite reconstruction: RECONCILED. Confidence inputs are not calibrated probabilities. Current weights alone cannot establish historical contributions. C4 remains disclosed as frozen from 2026-05-18.

source_hash identifies the original stored event record; it is not a digest of the displayed excerpt or the original SEC file. Public event inclusion verification: NOT_AVAILABLE. /evidence/verify.json describes SIGNAL snapshot ledger checks and does not authenticate this event hash. Quote occurrence, semantic support, arithmetic and external provenance are separate checks.

Research guide / Guide de recherche

Evidence coverage — the four terms

66
ECS (0–100)
4
accepted events, 90d
12.6
days since latest event
2
distinct event types
1
substrate active (0/1)

Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction.

Latest accepted events

OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.50 · direction +1 · 8-K · 12.6 days ago
On October 2, 2026, Tesla, Inc. published the press release which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.19 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 35.2 days ago
Taneja Vaibhav S 2606 shares @ $360.13 on 2026-09-08 ($938,419)
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.80 · direction +1 · 10-Q · 84.2 days ago
0001318605 tsla:AutomotiveRevenuesMember 2026-04-01 2026-06-30 0001318605 tsla:AutomotiveRevenuesMember 2025-04-01 2025-06-30
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL magnitude 0.50 · direction +1 · 8-K · 84.4 days ago
On July 22, 2026, Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 by posting its Second Quarter 2026 Update on its website.
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL magnitude 0.21 · direction -1 · 4-parsed · 90.8 days ago
Taneja Vaibhav S 2606 shares @ $402.20 on 2026-06-08 ($1,047,924)
source filing ↗

Label history (last 30 snapshot days)

Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.

Story membership

No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.

Research and education only — not investment advice. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.

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Data through 2026-10-14 (last completed U.S. trading day); generated at 2026-10-15 02:45 UTC.