Why MSFT
NEUTRAL
+0.3643
score +0.3643 sits in the NEUTRAL band [+0.20, +0.40) of the published threshold table ·
snapshot 2026-08-04 17:00 UTC · point-in-time, never edited
Research and education only — not investment advice.
Signal labels are research classifications, not buy/sell recommendations.
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
Component breakdown (C1–C9, confidence-weighted composite)
C1 Price momentum
w=0.12
+1.000
C2 Volume confirmation
w=0.08
+0.000
volume feed not wired — zero-confidence by design (C2 challenger accrues in a parallel shadow table)
C3 Sector velocity
w=0.12
+0.862
C4 Macro regime
w=0.15
+0.600
macro-regime input frozen as of 2026-05-18 with staleness disclosure, pending macro engine restoration
C5 Oil/rates/FX
w=0.05
-0.565
C6 Event impact
w=0.18
+0.146
C7 Peer correlation
w=0.10
-0.099
C8 Cascade effect
w=0.12
+0.000
C9 Model trust
w=0.08
-0.143
Weights are the published composite weights; component scores are
the current snapshot's stored values. C6 event impact carries the highest single weight by design —
evidence is meant to correct price-only signals, not echo them.
Evidence coverage — the four terms
6.5
days since latest event
Evidence Coverage v1 (registered protocol): how much evidence stands
under this classification — coverage, not prediction.
Latest accepted events
M_AND_A_ANNOUNCE
magnitude 0.80 · direction +1 ·
10-K · 6.5 days ago
msft:ActivisionBlizzardIncMember 2023-10-13
source filing ↗
OTHER_MATERIAL
magnitude 0.50 · direction +0 ·
8-K · 6.5 days ago
On July 29, 2026, Microsoft Corporation
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL
magnitude 0.10 · direction -1 ·
4-parsed · 19.9 days ago
Coleman Amy S 1262 shares @ $411.34 on 2026-05-14 ($519,242)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL
magnitude 1.00 · direction -1 ·
4-parsed · 19.9 days ago
Althoff Judson S 15500 shares @ $460.99 on 2026-06-01 ($7,145,314)
source filing ↗
INSIDER_SELL
magnitude 0.21 · direction -1 ·
4-parsed · 19.9 days ago
Numoto Takeshi S 2500 shares @ $412.45 on 2026-06-08 ($1,031,125)
source filing ↗
Label history (last 30 snapshot days)
Point-in-time record, oldest → newest; colors follow the label
legend on the home page. Never edited after the fact.
Story membership
No mega-story membership recorded for this name in the current evidence-geometry artifacts.
Research and education only — not investment advice.
Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance.
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Universe Explorer · built 2026-08-05 04:20 UTC