Metadata-Version: 2.5
Name: arctic-climate-utac
Version: 1.0.0
Summary: Six real Arctic climate mechanisms (sea-ice albedo feedback, Greenland ice sheet mass balance, permafrost carbon feedback, the genuinely contested Arctic-amplification/cold-outbreak link, black carbon deposition, ocean acidification and methane hydrates), no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge
Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/arctic-climate-utac
Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/GenesisAeon/arctic-climate-utac
Author: Römer, Johann
License: MIT
License-File: LICENSE
Requires-Python: >=3.11
Provides-Extra: dev
Requires-Dist: mypy>=1.10.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pre-commit>=3.7.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest-cov>=5.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: pytest>=8.0.0; extra == 'dev'
Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.6.0; extra == 'dev'
Description-Content-Type: text/markdown

# arctic-climate-utac

GenesisAeon Package 127 — six real, independently verified Arctic
climate mechanisms. Sibling to `antarctic-ice-shelf-utac` (P120), built
the same way. **Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge** — see
[DISCLAIMER.md](DISCLAIMER.md).

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon,
written for general audiences), see [WHITEPAPER.md](WHITEPAPER.md).

## Where this package came from

Requested by Johann after a Spektrum.de coral-reef article led into a
broader brainstorm about the Antarctic package's sibling mechanisms for
the Arctic. Built via six parallel independent research passes, each
required to find real citable primary/near-primary sources — matching
the Antarctic package's process exactly.

## What's real here

- **Sea-ice albedo feedback** — Duspayev et al. (2024, *GRL*): Arctic
  sea-ice radiative effect averaged −0.64 to −0.86 W/m² (1980–2023),
  weakening ~25% since 1980. The percentage decline in cooling power is
  about **twice** the percentage decline in ice area, in both
  hemispheres — remaining ice is itself becoming less reflective, not
  just shrinking. Zhang et al. (2025, *The Cryosphere*): a competing
  negative feedback (meltwater freshening) exists but the positive
  albedo feedback wins out roughly 2:1 (γ_IA = 0.41).
- **Greenland ice sheet mass balance** — IMBIE Team (2020, *Nature*):
  3,902 ± 342 Gt lost, 1992–2018, split almost evenly between surface
  melt/runoff (50.3%) and dynamic ice discharge (49.7%) — a genuinely
  different mechanism balance than Antarctica's 68%-ocean-driven-basal-
  melt-dominant picture. Khan et al. (2014, *Nat. Clim. Change*): the
  northeast Greenland ice stream was stable or thickening for over 25
  years before flipping to sustained thinning — a real parallel to the
  sibling package's East-stable/West-loses theme.
- **Permafrost carbon feedback** — Schuur et al. (2015): 1,330–1,580 Pg
  C stored. Turetsky et al. (2020): abrupt thaw affects under 20% of
  the permafrost zone by area but holds up to ~50% of the carbon at
  risk. Natali et al. (2019): winter CO2 loss (1,662 Tg C/yr) exceeds
  growing-season uptake. Natali et al. (2025): the zone overall remains
  an *increasing* sink, 2001–2020 — but over 30% of it is already a net
  source, a genuinely mixed picture, not a monolithic "carbon bomb."
- **Arctic amplification / jet-stream cold-outbreak link** — the
  package's honesty-check module: a real, live, unresolved scientific
  debate (Cohen et al. 2021 vs. Blackport & Screen 2020), unlike the
  sibling package's Antarctic vortex case, which cleanly failed the
  Arctic analogy. See "Deliberately not one-sided" below.
- **Black carbon deposition** — Cho et al. (2025, *STOTEN*): east
  Siberian wildfires drove 62–79% of elevated Arctic black carbon,
  2019–2021, with snow contamination reaching 15–34 ng/g — roughly an
  order of magnitude above the Antarctic background documented in the
  sibling package.
- **Arctic Ocean acidification & ESAS methane** — Robbins et al.
  (2013): ~20% of Canada Basin surface waters already undersaturated in
  aragonite. Steinbach et al. (2021): East Siberian Arctic Shelf
  methane is dominated by deep thermogenic gas (>60,000 years old), not
  shallow microbial sources — complicating, not resolving, a genuinely
  contested debate about release risk.

## Deliberately not one-sided

`is_this_link_scientific_consensus()` returns `False` — the
Arctic-amplification-to-cold-outbreak link, probably the single most
repeated Arctic climate narrative in popular science, is presented here
as a real, unresolved debate between named researchers on both sides,
not a settled fact.

## Installation

```bash
pip install arctic-climate-utac
```

## Quick start

```python
from arctic_climate_utac import (
    SIRE,
    MASS_BUDGET,
    is_greenland_loss_dominated_by_the_same_mechanism_as_antarctica,
    is_this_link_scientific_consensus,
)

SIRE.arctic_weakening_pct  # 25.0
MASS_BUDGET.total_loss_gt  # 3902.0
is_greenland_loss_dominated_by_the_same_mechanism_as_antarctica()  # False
is_this_link_scientific_consensus()  # False -- the honesty check
```

## License

Code: MIT. Documentation/data notes: see [DISCLAIMER.md](DISCLAIMER.md).

## Citation

See [CITATION.cff](CITATION.cff).
